As 2026 begins, the global financial markets remain hot. But this Friday, the market may face a real stress test—the December US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and at the same time, the Supreme Court is reviewing the constitutionality of certain policies.

Interestingly, despite a barrage of recent news—from geopolitical developments to sector rotations—the performance of US stocks and US bonds has been surprisingly stable. The chief investment officer of a major asset management firm bluntly stated in an interview: "Frequent news bombardments, yet the market remains calm; this is indeed a bit abnormal."

However, this tranquility will soon be broken. Market strategists point out that options traders are already prepared to迎接 the most volatile trading day of the year. Based on the implied volatility of options expiring on Friday, the S&P 500 could fluctuate by ±0.9% within a single day.

The jitters in the options market also reveal some clues. Although the S&P 500 is still hitting new highs, the Wall Street fear gauge (VIX) has been slowly rising since 2026, closing at 15.5 on Thursday. Some analysts question whether investors' caution is sufficient, suggesting that the options market's performance is actually relatively moderate.