This signal appeared before XRP's three rallies. Analysts say the historical pattern is repeating, and key levels are emerging.

Cryptocurrency analyst Bird recently pointed out a noteworthy phenomenon: the structural changes in Bitcoin market share are reproducing historical patterns, which often signal a significant rise in XRP. After a correction from the $3.20 high, XRP is currently around $2.12, and market participants are highly interested in the reliability of this signal.

Three Validations of the Historical Pattern

Bird reviewed three key periods in the past and identified a clear pattern:

The commonality among these three rallies is evident: they all occurred after Bitcoin market share weakened significantly. Bird believes that when Bitcoin’s capital attraction diminishes, funds tend to seek alternatives, and XRP, with its unique positioning and liquidity, has historically been the main beneficiary.

Current Signal Strength Assessment

Bird further pointed out that the current position closely overlaps with the area before XRP’s main upward wave in history, but the structural strength this time is notably higher than before. What does this imply?

Key Position of Bitcoin Share

From 2023 to 2025, Bitcoin market share has been steadily rising. Recently, after breaking below the upward trendline, a rebound occurred, which drew analyst attention. If Bitcoin share confirms a downtrend and breaks below the trendline, the target zone could drop to 40%-44%. Once this scenario unfolds, XRP is not only expected to strengthen but may also enter a true price discovery phase, with potential to break into double digits.

Technical Support Signals

From a technical perspective, XRP’s current indicators show the market is in consolidation, but downward pressure is easing:

• 14-period RSI around 44-45, neutral zone
• MACD in negative territory but histogram flattening, indicating natural release of selling pressure
• Price holding steady at the key support level of $2.12

These indicators collectively depict an “accumulation” rather than “decline” scenario.

Subtle On-Chain Data Changes

According to the latest data, since mid-December, the inflow of whales into major liquidity channels for XRP has significantly decreased. Currently, whales account for about 60.3% of total XRP inflow, while retail investors make up 39.7%. As large holder activity declines, no significant retail accumulation has been observed, implying short-term selling pressure is naturally easing rather than being driven by panic selling.

Market Sentiment and Fundamentals Alignment

Related news shows Ripple CEO Monica Long recently outlined the company’s growth strategy for 2026, focusing on accelerating digital infrastructure through strategic acquisitions. These initiatives have been launched amid high market optimism, with some forecasts suggesting XRP could reach about $3 by mid-2026.

Additionally, market heat data also supports this. XRP has recently appeared frequently on hot cryptocurrency lists, with CNBC even calling it this year’s “hottest” crypto. When this market consensus aligns with technical signals, on-chain data, and fundamentals, it often indicates an approaching turning point.

Key Trigger Conditions and Future Outlook

From the analyst’s perspective, XRP’s outlook depends on several key conditions:

• Whether Bitcoin market share can confirm a break below the trendline and decline to the 40%-44% range
• Whether XRP can continue to be supported around $2.12
• Whether retail investors will gradually accumulate, forming new upward momentum

If these conditions are gradually confirmed, XRP could transition from the current accumulation phase into a new upward cycle. However, Bird also emphasizes that while historical signals are reliable, the market direction still depends on further confirmation of Bitcoin’s market share.

Summary

XRP is currently at a delicate juncture. In history, three similar signals have led to substantial rallies, and the current signal strength is even higher than before. Technical, on-chain, and market sentiment indicators all point in the same direction, but the real trigger depends on Bitcoin’s market share performance. For investors watching XRP, the next step is to closely monitor two aspects: whether Bitcoin share can confirm a downtrend, and whether XRP can hold above $2.12. Once these two conditions are confirmed, XRP may truly be approaching a critical turning point.