#美国贸易赤字状况 How will gold trends be affected by the reversal of tariff policies?

Currently, global investors are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court's final ruling on Trump's tariff policies. Once the controversial tariffs are overturned, stocks and commodities will be revalued, and short-term volatility in gold is almost inevitable—regional price gap fluctuations and frequent movements in U.S. gold inventories may follow. As uncertainty around trade policies dissipates, funds will flow back into risk assets like stocks, and with gold prices already at historic highs and under profit-taking pressure, a phased correction in gold is almost unavoidable.

But this is only surface turbulence. The underlying logic supporting gold prices has never loosened.

First, the global situation in 2026 is still evolving—ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, continued instability in the Middle East, and increasing political polarization within the U.S. all continuously feed the safe-haven attributes of gold. Second, under the wave of "de-dollarization," central banks' enthusiasm for gold purchases has not cooled. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, and the monthly gold purchase scale of various countries remains stable at around 70 tons, serving as the "anchor" for gold prices.

More importantly, the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026 are becoming clearer, and a low-interest-rate environment is always positive for gold. The proportion of gold in U.S. investment portfolios is still well below its historical peak, leaving ample room for individual investors to allocate. Even if tariff policies are truly adjusted and implemented, gold's core role in hedging risks and optimizing asset allocation will not be shaken—central banks and investors will continue to choose it. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are even optimistic about long-term gold prices, predicting that by the end of the year, prices could reach $4,800–$4,900 per ounce.

Short-term fluctuations are just market noise; long-term support is the backbone of the trend. Trump’s tariff adjustments may disrupt gold’s short-term rhythm, but they cannot change its core value in this turbulent era.