#2026年比特币价格展望 Non-farm Payrolls Data Incoming: How Can Retail Investors Avoid Pitfalls?

Tonight at 21:30, the US January Non-Farm Employment Change data will be officially released—this economic "barometer" will directly impact global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market will not be immune.

**Data Highlights and Market Logic**

Expected new jobs: 60,000 (previously 64,000), with unemployment rate data released simultaneously. These figures may seem simple, but they actually influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction—strong employment data suggests the Fed is likely to maintain its anti-inflation stance and delay interest rate cuts, keeping the US dollar strong and putting pressure on crypto assets; conversely, weak employment data may increase expectations of rate cuts, weakening the dollar and often benefiting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

**Possible Market Scenarios**

If the actual data is below the expected 60,000, the market may hype rate cut expectations, leading to short-term bullishness; if the data exceeds the previous 64,000, there is a higher risk of short-term market correction. However, in the medium term, the rate cut cycle still remains a possibility, and corrections could present buying opportunities.

**Risk Alerts**

Before and after the data release, large funds often manipulate the market with news to shake out weak hands or trigger stop-loss liquidations. Retail investors are most prone to making mistakes amid emotional swings—either over-leveraging early on or being shaken out. Altcoins are especially vulnerable to zeroing risks during volatile swings.

**Operational Recommendations**

1. Keep a light position; avoid heavy bets on either side before the data is released.
2. Wait 30 minutes after the data release to observe the market’s true reaction before making decisions.
3. Maintain a calm mindset—better to miss out than to make mistakes.

In the face of data, the market is the most honest. Tonight’s volatility will determine the trend for the coming days. Prepare your strategies in advance—look for opportunities amid panic, and stay rational amid frenzy.