There are four traditional data pillars in the conventional financial world: stock price trends, trading volume, corporate earnings reports, and analyst ratings. These four elements form the core information system for daily decision-making on Wall Street.

But recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged—prediction markets are entering this elite decision-making club.

Why is it said that prediction markets could become the "fifth major data source"? The core reason is simple: traditional data can only tell you what happened in the past, and while analyst ratings are forward-looking, they are limited by personal subjective judgments and conflicts of interest. Prediction markets, on the other hand, aggregate real-time probabilities of future events from participants worldwide, and these judgments are backed by real money votes—no one is willing to pay for a prediction they don’t believe in.

Recently, this track has stirred up again.

On one side, Kalshi, a platform specializing in political and economic predictions, took the lead by announcing partnerships with major TV media like CNN, meaning prediction market data will start appearing on traditional financial TV programs—this is a landmark moment for the relatively niche prediction market sector.

Not long after, Polymarket quickly followed suit. On January 7, Polymarket announced it became an official data partner of The Wall Street Journal and its parent company, Dow Jones. What does this mean? It means that the most authoritative business media on Wall Street is beginning to incorporate data from crypto prediction markets into their reporting and analysis frameworks.

This is not just a simple business partnership. It is a formal recognition of prediction markets by the traditional financial power structure—moving from the periphery to the center, from niche to mainstream.

Think carefully about the logic behind this: why are established financial media and traders suddenly paying attention to prediction market data?

One important reason is accuracy. Historical data shows that, in predicting specific events, collective judgment from prediction markets is often more accurate than individual experts and traditional polls. Because market participants’ interests are directly tied to the outcomes, this creates a powerful incentive mechanism for information. In other words, money talks—more honestly than any words.

Another reason is real-time updates and transparency. Traditional analyst ratings are often lagging, while prediction market odds update every second, reflecting the latest information and market sentiment. This is naturally attractive to traders who need to make quick decisions.

Of course, prediction markets are far from perfect. Liquidity can sometimes be insufficient, participant groups are not yet diverse enough, and regulatory attitudes remain ambiguous in many countries. But the trend is clear—more and more mainstream institutions and media are beginning to regard prediction market data as an important reference for decision-making.

This could be a bigger signal for the entire Web3 ecosystem. It indicates that the idea of using financial incentives to aggregate information and predict the future is gaining recognition in the traditional financial world. From niche applications in crypto circles to becoming part of Wall Street’s data infrastructure, prediction markets are making a bold move.