#密码资产动态追踪 Tonight's two major events collide, and the market should be prepared for turbulence

Everyone, pay attention: tonight at 9:30 PM Beijing time, the US will release December employment data, and at the same time, the Supreme Court will also give a ruling on the legality of tariffs. With these two major events happening simultaneously, market volatility is just a small matter.

First, let's look at the non-farm payrolls. The market consensus is that December added between 60,000 and 73,000 jobs, slightly better than November's 64,000, and the unemployment rate has dropped from 4.6% to 4.5%. It sounds pretty good, but the problem is that many of these numbers include seasonal temporary workers, so a good headline doesn't necessarily mean the underlying quality is solid. A few days ago, ADP data showed private sector employment increased by only 41,000, below expectations, reflecting that companies are actually quite cautious about hiring.

How the data impacts the market is straightforward—weak data means expectations of Fed rate cuts will rise, risk assets will take a breather; strong data does the opposite, pushing back expectations of rate cuts and increasing market pressure. The most comfortable scenario is data that’s neither too hot nor too cold, not too stimulating nor too depressing.

But that’s not all. The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs is the real variable bomb. If the court rejects the tariff policies, import-dependent companies and consumers can breathe a short-term sigh of relief, but the White House will definitely find other ways, and long-term uncertainty will still hang over the market. The various combinations of these two outcomes will directly determine whether stocks, bonds, and forex rise or fall tonight.

Honestly, tonight will be a sleepless night. I recommend everyone to review their positions carefully, manage risks well, and not be driven by market sentiment. $ETH $ZKP