2026-01-09 09:11:39

#密码资产动态追踪 See the real deal tonight! Non-farm payroll data is coming, and the market has already "smelled" the trend.

Have you noticed? Recently, the market has a somewhat familiar feeling. Tonight, the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be released, and the recent decline in the market seems like an early "pre-emptive strike." This is no coincidence — on one hand, it’s digesting the upcoming data shock; on the other hand, it’s warming up for the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.

**What do institutions think? Opinions vary quite a bit**

The December US non-farm payroll data will be announced tonight at 21:30. There is consensus but also divergence. How will the new jobs number turn out? Reuters says 60,000, Bloomberg estimates 70,000, The Wall Street Journal predicts 74,000. Some institutions are aggressively forecasting as low as 23,000, while others see as high as 155,000 — a wide range. On the unemployment rate, expectations are a drop from 4.6% in November to 4.5%. What if it instead rises to 4.7%? That would significantly impact the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts.

**Three possible scenarios, three different trends**

In line with expectations (adding 60,000–75,000 jobs): the market reaction will be relatively muted. It might just be a slight correction or rebound after the data release, continuing the story of a "soft landing" for the economy.

Stronger-than-expected data (far above 75,000): This is hawkish. The Fed’s confidence to cut rates weakens, the dollar benefits, but risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies will face pressure.

Weaker data (below 50,000): Dovish signals emerge. It will reinforce market expectations of an early rate cut by the Fed, possibly giving risk assets a rebound. Of course, it may also raise concerns about a recession.

Tonight’s data release is the key to short-term market sentiment. How to respond? Just stick to your own positions.

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MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 01-10 04:36

I've been through this before; non-farm payroll data is just a smokescreen, the real Ponzi scheme is still behind the scenes. Wait, are institutions really that divided? 23,000 to 155,000? Isn't that just like the predictions from project teams in 2018—saying anything they want? Even if dovish policies come, it's pointless. Those ultra-high APY schemes in the crypto world should have died long ago. Stay bearish and don't be fooled by the "soft landing" story.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-10 03:25

Damn, another Non-Farm Payrolls report. This time it’s either going to skyrocket or plummet. So damn exciting. Institutional opinions vary so much? From 23,000 to 155,000? How are they estimating that? Shopping at the vegetable market? I've seen through it long ago. Every time it's about speculating on expectations and selling on reality. Old tricks. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.7%, I bet five bucks it’ll break through directly. Wait until tonight. Anyway, I’ve already gone all-in on my coins, so I can handle whatever data comes. Whether hawkish or dovish, it doesn’t matter to me. What matters is whether I can hold on to the bottom. That’s why I never make predictions. I just look at the K-line and speak. Gotta stay up late watching the market again. Truly incredible. The Federal Reserve wants to print more money again? Wake up, everyone. There’s no such thing as a free lunch.

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MintMaster

· 01-09 15:16

Clearing mines... Feels like tonight will either be a big rise or a big fall, the middle route is the hardest to guess. Waiting for the data, anyway I’ve already reduced my position, don’t want to get trapped. The institutions’ forecast range is so wide, it shows that no one has confidence, it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve is hawkish or dovish. Non-farm payrolls are coming, the crypto market will be on a roller coaster again, just get used to it. The biggest killer is the expectation gap; the moment the data is released is the most exciting. Really? Could it be that tonight is another case of "buying the rumor and selling the fact"? I’ve already been scared off by the cuts. If the Fed is dovish, I’ll go all in; if hawkish? Then I’ll just keep hiding in the corner as a salted fish. That’s right, the recent decline does seem to have a bit of an early bloodlock vibe. Each to their own position, that phrase is really cringey, but there’s nothing else to do. Situations below 50,000 are the worst; the panic over economic recession will outweigh the expectations of rate cuts.

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StakeOrRegret

· 01-09 09:41

Oh no, the institutional expectation gap this time is too outrageous, from 23,000 to 155,000? This is just gambling. Waiting until 21:30 tonight to check the data, it feels like we're about to see the old show of "speculate on expectations, sell on reality." The rate cut expectations are unpredictable, and my holdings are going to be tossed around again. I really can't understand how to predict non-farm payroll data, so I might as well just hodl. The strategy of selling on expectations always works, just wait and see who gets cut tonight. Is the gap between reality and expectations always this big? Will the Federal Reserve actually cut rates or not? It's driving me crazy. If the unemployment rate really rises to 4.7%, risk assets will be panicked. Feels like every time, the pattern is: drop before the data, rebound after? I'm just waiting to see a strong surprise and the reverse operation.

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MechanicalMartel

· 01-09 09:40

Is this the same routine again? Hawkish data causes the dollar to rise, dovish data causes the crypto to rebound, and we still have to bet on the probabilities. Non-farm payrolls and other major events are really just gambling playgrounds for gamblers... Institutions have different opinions, and how can we win by following the trend? If it drops below 50,000, it's all over. Everyone will rush in then, classic move. I just want to know why every time someone sees 23,000, where does this data come from? This round of market movement is quite interesting. In the afternoon, we were still betting on dovishness, and now we're starting to lean hawkish again. Tonight at 21:30, whether it explodes or not depends on this wave. All positions are already in place.

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blockBoy

· 01-09 09:31

It's another non-farm payroll report and rate cut; how many times have we seen this storyline... and it still ends up going against expectations. Weak data is actually the real positive, as a recession could even lead to a soft landing story. Those institutional forecasts are so off; it's better to just flip a coin. See you tonight at 21:30 for the real deal. I bet below 50,000. It's already 2024, and we're still watching the Federal Reserve's face. When will crypto finally become truly independent?

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NFTDreamer

· 01-09 09:30

Non-farm payrolls this time really depends on luck. With such divided opinions among institutions, we'll know who was right at 21:30. If you're betting on a rebound from weak data, be prepared psychologically. If there's a strong report, the market might crash directly. I just want to ask, who can accurately predict this stuff? What crypto fears most is a sudden change in the Fed's stance. Tonight is the watershed moment. Clearing the mines, clearing the mines. It feels like these past two days of decline are just making room for tonight. Did any institutions really see 23,000? That's a bold move, can't afford to lose, haha. A soft landing for the economy, huh? I think it's just the market comforting itself.

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MoonRocketman

· 01-09 09:24

During the fuel fueling phase before the launch window opens, the RSI is already in a critical state in low Earth orbit, and tonight's non-farm payroll data is the ignition device.

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TradFiRefugee

· 01-09 09:13

Non-farm data is just a gamble; no matter how it turns out, someone will lose everything. Let's wait and see who wins—doves or hawks. I bet on a soft stance. This move is all about guessing the Federal Reserve's intentions; it's too difficult. Expectations really do harm; I always feel they'll act in the opposite direction. I've already set the alarm for 21:30; those who are going to get liquidated will still get liquidated.

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