Ethereum has recently been hovering around $3100, with the price breaking below the 100-hour moving average, indicating a clear weakening in the short-term trend. However, from a technical perspective, the situation may not be as pessimistic as it appears on the surface.

On the technical side, the hourly chart shows signs of a breakout of the downward trendline. Although the rebound strength is limited, selling pressure is gradually diminishing. The key support level is at $3050—this is the last line of defense for the bulls. On-chain data shows that within the $2700-$3100 range, 17.9 million ETH have accumulated, accounting for 22.6% of the total circulating supply. If the price falls below this support, it could trigger a large-scale stop-loss sell-off of these holdings. Conversely, if the $3050 support holds, it is highly likely to form a double bottom pattern, with the rebound target aiming for the $3180-$3200 zone.

Looking upward, the $3150-$3180 area is the nearest resistance zone, where the 100-hour moving average and previously trapped positions converge. Whether this area can be effectively broken through will be a key signal to confirm a short-term trend reversal.

From an on-chain data perspective, the movements of whales and institutions are worth monitoring. Validator exit queues are approaching stagnation, indicating that large holders are not eager to withdraw at the current price levels. These subtle on-chain signals suggest that a market bottom may be quietly forming.