U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released this Friday, and the market generally expects a moderate increase, which could inject some confidence into investors for the new year — but that's all, don't expect it to trigger any euphoric rally.

Consensus forecasts point to an increase of 60,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate slightly declining to 4.5%. However, the prediction range swings between 25,000 and 155,000, reflecting how uncertain the current hiring market is. Compared to this, the figure will be slightly higher than the average of 55,000 jobs per month over the past 11 months and better than the 64,000 reported in November. Notably, the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year.

This report is very significant for traders. It directly influences market expectations of the Federal Reserve's future actions and could trigger a wave of movements in stocks, bonds, currencies, and precious metals.

Market reactions will differ greatly under two scenarios — if the data is weak, the market will bet on the Fed increasing its rate cuts this year. Under this expectation, the dollar will struggle to hold up, stocks may rebound briefly, but concerns about economic growth will gradually take over. Conversely, strong data will dampen rate cut expectations, support the dollar, and put pressure on U.S. stock valuations. A stronger dollar is also bad news for gold, as under the pressure of index rebalancing, gold has already been struggling.