Let's calculate based on the most concrete application of commercial spaceflight—low Earth orbit satellites.

In theory, China, the US, and Canada together could launch 100,000 satellites (this number is actually close to the physical limit). The manufacturing cost of a single SpaceX satellite is about $3.5 million. Domestic manufacturers' costs are slightly higher, possibly reaching tens of millions per satellite, but this is the trend, and there is still room for cost reduction. Let's estimate with a cost of $3.5 million per satellite, which totals $350 billion for 100,000 satellites.

Adding the rocket launch system and ground infrastructure, the entire market scale is roughly capped at a trillion US dollars.

The problem is—compared to the trillion-dollar new energy sector or the ten-trillion-dollar level of AI and embodied intelligence, this scale is simply not in the same league. The gap is too large.

Of course, if we include those sci-fi applications Elon Musk talks about, like lunar landings and Mars trips, perhaps a bigger story can be told. But those are still too far away to count.