On January 9th, the asset management giant VanEck released a heavyweight report on the long-term trend of Bitcoin, directly providing a shocking forecast.

This report was jointly prepared by VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, with a clear core message — Bitcoin will experience strong growth over the next few decades and has pointed out the allocation direction for institutional investors.

How do the specific data look? The report provides answers using multi-scenario models:

**Base Case Scenario**: Assuming Bitcoin accounts for 5-10% of global trade and becomes a central bank reserve asset (accounting for 2.5% of the balance sheet), by 2050, the price per coin could surge to $2.9 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 15%.

**Conservative Bear Market Scenario**: Growth is relatively moderate, around 2% annually, with the price near $130,000 by 2050.

**Extreme Bullish Scenario** ("Super Bitcoinization"): If Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP, the price per coin could skyrocket to $53.4 million, with a CAGR of 29%.

The report also emphasizes a key transformation — Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative asset into a low-correlation strategic asset. In the context of today's high sovereign debt and currency devaluation risks, it has become a unique hedging tool within institutional portfolios.

Regarding allocation recommendations, VanEck provides practical plans: most diversified portfolios can allocate 1-3% of Bitcoin; for investors with higher risk tolerance, a 20% allocation might optimize returns. Such differentiated advice is meaningful for different types of investors.