The topic framework of Bitcoin is quietly shifting. In the past few years, the market's obsession with price volatility has gradually given way to deeper considerations—policy support, integration with financial systems, and the promotion of everyday payment applications.

Some analysts believe that 2026 will become a watershed year for Bitcoin's formal integration into the institutional framework. This is not only about whether the price can reach new highs but also about the structural evolution of the entire asset class.

**The four-year cycle still exists, but volatility may see a turning point**

The market is still testing whether the "four-year cycle" will continue to dominate Bitcoin's trend. But the focus of observation has changed—no longer asking "Will there be a retracement?" but rather "Can the retracement be significantly converged?"

Historical data shows that Bitcoin's pullback typically fluctuates between 50% and 70%. If this number can drop to around 30%, it indicates a trend of decreasing long-term volatility is forming. This seemingly subtle change actually reflects an increase in market maturity.

**Scarcity topic reignited, official buying is the biggest variable**

What could truly rewrite the supply and demand logic in 2026 is a shift by the U.S. government—from passively holding seized Bitcoin to actively purchasing in the market.

Currently, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is close to 20 million coins, with limited room for growth. Once official buying with symbolic significance occurs, the scarcity narrative may once again become the market's focus. Behind this is an implication that institutional and government recognition of Bitcoin's value is deepening.

Supply-side constraints, combined with policy support on the demand side, could lead to a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's narrative in 2026.