If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates by 150 basis points this year, how will the market react? Some analysts have directly stated: gold will at least break $5,000, silver will surge to $90, and domestic gold will also rise above $1,100.

But the question is, they've been talking about rate cuts for over two years, and the market has been speculating, but what about actual action? Not much. Instead, gold has been rising quite aggressively.

Recently, things have become interesting. On January 8th, a Federal Reserve governor came out and said: "We need to cut interest rates by 150 basis points this year. Current policies are too tight, inflation is only 2.3%, there is plenty of room to cut, and we need to help the weak labor market."

This aligns perfectly. The current Fed Chair is cautious and has always been concerned about aggressive easing policies, often mentioning potential inflation risks and the need to avoid rapid loosening. Trump didn't hold back criticizing him, saying the economy is almost collapsing and questioning why so many things are being done.

There are also many voices supporting rapid rate cuts. Some officials have explicitly stated that rate cuts are the way out for economic growth. The US economy is not just on the brink of recession; it has already fallen in, and the only way out is to cut rates.

The turning point will be in May—the current Chair's term ends then. How will the new leader handle it? That will determine the scale and pace of rate cuts. But one thing is certain: rate cuts will definitely continue, though opinions differ on their frequency.

Will gold take off by 2026? It mainly depends on how the Federal Reserve chooses to proceed.