Standard & Poor's recently made a major move—directly raising the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2026, while also predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026. As soon as this signal was released, the market immediately sensed a dovish tone.

First, let's discuss what this means for crypto assets. A rate cut cycle typically triggers two chain reactions: first, US dollar liquidity becomes more abundant, making risk assets more attractive for capital inflows; second, the probability of a soft landing for the economy increases, and investor risk appetite tends to rebound. For assets like Bitcoin, often called "digital gold," this is indeed a positive signal—historical data also shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well during loose monetary policy cycles.

However, there are some cautious points to consider. First, this forecast is based on the assumption that inflation will continue to decline moderately. If energy prices or other cost factors suddenly rebound by the end of the year, inflation data could defy expectations. Second, there are still voices within the Federal Reserve advocating for maintaining higher interest rates, so decision-making won't be smooth sailing. Lastly—and most critically—the volatility of the crypto market is more than ten times that of traditional markets. Policy expectations are just one of many catalysts; one shouldn't go all-in on good news alone. Risk management must come first.

In short, this is a positive signal, but there are still many variables for the market to digest. Hedging tools should still be part of the portfolio.