Is the rate cut cycle really coming? The market has been hyping this topic for over two years, but the Federal Reserve's actual actions haven't met expectations. Instead, gold has been on a steady rise.

In mid-January, Federal Reserve Board member Milan suddenly spoke out, stating outright that he hopes the Fed will cut interest rates by 150 basis points this year. His reasoning is simple and straightforward: current monetary policy is too tight, inflation is only at 2.3%, there is plenty of room for rate cuts, and the labor market is also extremely weak.

It sounds aggressive, but it hits the core contradiction in policy circles. Fed Chair Powell is famously "hawkish," always cautious about aggressive easing, citing the "potential inflation risks"—note the word "potential." Trump had long lost patience with this and publicly criticized Powell multiple times for being too cautious, arguing that the economy is already in bad shape and still playing the empty city game.

Support for aggressive rate cuts isn't limited to Milan. Bessent also stepped forward, saying that rate cuts are not just an option but a necessity for U.S. economic growth. In his view, the U.S. economy has long slipped from the "recession edge" into the "abyss," and the only lifeline is a significant rate cut.

The turning point comes in May. Powell's term will end, and after the new Fed chair takes office, the direction of monetary policy will change completely. One thing is certain: rate cuts will definitely continue, but opinions differ on the speed and frequency.

If interest rates are really cut by 150 basis points, gold could break through $5,000, and reaching $90 for silver is not a dream. Domestic gold is also expected to surpass the $1,100 mark. Will 2026 be the year for precious metals to take off? Everything points to the Fed's upcoming decision.