2026-01-09 09:32:46

Recently, there has been widespread talk about 15 consecutive days of gains in the market. The media repeatedly emphasize this number, but if you look closely at the candlestick charts, there are clearly two false bullish candles in the middle — how could these leading media outlets not understand that? What they want is exactly this kind of market atmosphere.

Since the reversal starting on December 17, this trend does resemble the market situation in mid-April last year — back then, it was truly an 8-day winning streak. From 924 points to now, the control of funds has become increasingly evident, and at critical points, they are not hesitant to intervene. Every rise and fall in the market hides secrets; this rhythm is precisely the key to whether the A-shares long-term bull can continue.

To be honest, there is a high probability that most retail investors this year cannot outperform the A500 index. Many people should have already realized this. Although the main index continues to rise comfortably, the degree of sector differentiation is widening, and some sectors that previously gained profits have already given them back. The subsequent adjustment pressure will continue.

For a long-term bull market to last, it is necessary to suppress the desire for quick, profit-driven surges. This means that some sectors may perform worse than reasonably expected at their phase-bottoms, which is not abnormal but normal.

The ChiNext Composite Index has been very resilient this year, but it’s important to note that its strength now is completely different from the strength at this time last year. The sweeping victory of the deep learning concept last year is no longer visible. The current advantage of the technology sector mainly comes from other sectors lagging behind, rather than explosive performance in absolute terms.

There is no reason to reduce positions prematurely now. Continue with a dynamic holding strategy, but be alert to one phenomenon: as the main trend confirms no problem, the rotation rhythm between sectors will accelerate. With a slight misstep, you could be left behind by sector shifts.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

19 Likes

Reward
19
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NeverPresent

· 01-09 10:02

The 15 consecutive days of gains are just a media trick; retail investors really believe it. --- With such obvious control over funds, it's normal that small retail investors can't beat the index. --- Sector rotation is getting faster and faster; if you're not careful, you'll be left behind. It's frustrating. --- Is the prolonged bull market suppressing the desire for rapid surges? Basically, it means we still need to grind, no flying to the sky. --- Is the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index strong? That depends on whether it's truly strong or just highlighted by comparison. It doesn't feel like last year anymore. --- Dynamic position strategies sound simple, but in actual operation, a slight mistake can lead to trouble. Who doesn't want to earn more? --- A lot of profits have been given back this year; although the surface looks red, the divergence is quite serious—some are happy, some are worried.

View OriginalReply0

HodlTheDoor

· 01-09 10:02

The media's old game of数字 tricks has long become boring. Claiming a false breakout during a 15-day rally is just shameless. Retail investors have been dizzy from sector rotations this year. One misstep and you're out. Innovation and technology stocks resisting declines? The kind of sweeping victory last year is simply unattainable now. Don't be fooled by false strength. The pace is so fast that only those who keep up can survive; others can only eat dirt. With such strong capital control, don't you still understand what institutions want? It's not surprising that most people can't outperform the A500; it was expected long ago. Instead of blindly reducing positions, it's better to study the secrets of sector switching. Trying to earn back profits that have been lost is becoming increasingly difficult. Dynamic positioning is the only way to stay alive; otherwise, you'll have a breakdown. To sustain a long bull market, you must suppress the desire for rapid gains. This logic is sound, but retail investors just can't accept it.

View OriginalReply0

VibesOverCharts

· 01-09 10:02

The media's storytelling skills are truly exceptional; they managed to create a narrative of 15 consecutive days of gains, and retail investors still believe it. The probability of not outperforming the A500 is so high, why am I still holding on? Haha. Sector rotation is so fast that you can be cut out of the game if you're not careful, feeling like you're chasing the wind. Last year's 8 consecutive days of gains were the real deal; compared to this wave, they are far better. When funds step in at critical points, everything else becomes irrelevant. Whether the A-shares market can sustain a long-term bull run depends on this. The tech sector is currently just riding the wave; it's not genuinely strong. Let's not be fooled. A sustained bull market requires stability; you need to suppress the urge for sudden surges, but for retail investors... it's tough. A market being red doesn't mean making money; sector divergence is significant, and some have already given back their gains. Current profits are hard to maintain. Holding positions steadily is correct, but the pace is so fast that today's winners could become losers tomorrow if you're not careful.

View OriginalReply0

ser_ngmi

· 01-09 09:52

15 consecutive bullish days are pure nonsense; upon closer inspection, it doesn't hold up at all. Retail investors are likely to be cannon fodder this year; I've learned this the hard way. Sector rotation is so fast that you can get cut off if you're not careful, it's frustrating. The strength of the Sci-Tech Innovation board is relative; don't be fooled. Funds are making moves at critical points; the sense of rhythm determines everything. Understanding this is the most important.

View OriginalReply0

TheMemefather

· 01-09 09:49

Fifteen consecutive bullish days are purely to fool retail investors; those who truly analyze the market have already seen through it. Retail investors are likely to lose money this year, and I am that probability. Sector rotation is so fast, what's the point of chasing? You'll get trapped and stuck if you're not careful.

View OriginalReply0