Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls report is about to be released, and this could be the most testing moment for trading psychology in recent times.

Many traders focus solely on the "job creation number" and start betting accordingly, often ending up being lessons for the market. In fact, Non-Farm is never just a single data point; it's a battle of emotions.

At 9:30 PM, the market truly cares about three things: the number of new jobs added, the unemployment rate, and the wage growth rate. These three data points together determine a core question—the Fed's next move.

**Market logic is straightforward:**
Weak economy leads to expectations of rate cuts, while a stable economy pushes rate cuts further into the future. There's nothing complicated about it.

Currently, the market consensus is as follows—unemployment rate in November stays at 4.6%, December's new job creation is expected to be around 55,000, and the unemployment rate remains in the 4.6%-4.7% range.

**What counts as a positive signal?**

If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.7% or the new jobs are significantly below expectations, the signal is clear: employment is softening, and economic pressure is increasing. The market will immediately start betting on more aggressive rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in January rising sharply. This is usually a positive signal for risk assets.

**And what about negative signals?**

The opposite data—significantly higher-than-expected job creation and unemployment rate remaining low—indicates economic resilience is still strong. The Fed has no reason to be forced into action, and the likelihood of maintaining the status quo in January increases. In such cases, the market doesn't surge but often pulls back after expectations are shattered.

**But there's a crucial trap here:**
Don't rush to act. Experienced traders don't jump at the first second after the data is released. Instead, they look for two things: which data truly triggers market reactions, and whether this reaction is genuine or a false alarm. They also watch whether rate expectations have genuinely shifted.

Non-Farm Payrolls night isn't about the direction itself; it's about those who act without thinking it through.

Rather than obsessing over "whether it's bullish or bearish," ask yourself: what is the market really afraid of, and what is it genuinely expecting? Once you understand this, the subsequent positioning and timing—when to wait, when to act—will naturally become clear.