#密码资产动态追踪 When the US Non-Farm Payrolls data is released, the crypto market immediately shifts into "stress mode."

You'll notice that within the first two hours after the data lands, prices often experience a sharp move of over 3%-5%, either surging or retreating rapidly. If the bulls and bears are both highly aggressive, it can even lead to a quick "pinning" where both sides get pierced—this is what’s called a double-kill market.

But frankly, the influence of Non-Farm data is being diluted. Currently, 60% of major US banks have integrated Bitcoin services, and the inflow of spot ETF funds far exceeds the annual mining increase. Institutional capital continues to pour in, changing the overall market temperament. The direction of prices is increasingly dependent on on-chain activity and regulatory policies—these "genes"—rather than the short-term volatility caused by Non-Farm data, which is more like "noise" that gets digested quickly and doesn't alter the long-term trend.

Simply put: strong Non-Farm → expectations of rate hikes rise → short-term decline possible; weak Non-Farm → expectations of rate cuts increase → rebound opportunity. But each release inevitably stirs the market—it's unavoidable.

In essence, whether Non-Farm data will shake up the crypto market depends mainly on how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates and how the US dollar index moves. How do I see tonight’s situation? I think the odds favor a bullish scenario (but don’t blame me if I’m wrong).