2026-01-09 10:10:17

#美国贸易赤字状况 The US trade deficit has become an unavoidable topic in the global economy. Behind the seemingly simple import and export figures lie a complex game of dollar hegemony, industrial division, and policy choices.

**A Double-Edged Sword for the US Itself**

What are the benefits? Consumers benefit. Cheap goods flow in continuously, significantly lowering living costs. The US also absorbs global capital through trade deficits, which reduces financing costs and fuels economic expansion. The key is—America can focus on high-profit activities, outsourcing low-end industries and keeping the main profits for itself.

And the drawbacks? Quite a few. The hollowing out of manufacturing is no longer news; the "Rust Belt" regions have long been in decline. Disrupted supply chains and declining technological innovation capabilities are long-term consequences of dependence on imports. Trade deficits and fiscal deficits are mutually causal, macroeconomic imbalances are worsening, and income inequality is intensifying social conflicts.

**The "Dependency Trap" of Global Partners**

For US trading partners, this is both an opportunity and a risk. The US deficit is others' surplus, directly benefiting employment and GDP growth. But conversely, once this over-reliance on the US market breaks down, these countries' economies could face severe shocks.

From the perspective of the global financial system, the problem is even bigger. To offset the deficit, the US continuously issues government bonds. This directly impacts the stability of the international monetary system, and the volatility risk in global financial markets increases accordingly.

**Can Tariffs Solve the Problem?**

In 2025, the Trump administration proposed a "reciprocal tariffs" policy, aiming to reduce import volumes by raising import costs. It sounds reasonable, but the actual effect is often limited. It can easily trigger trade retaliation, disrupt global supply chains, and exacerbate economic uncertainty.

**Where Is the Fundamental Solution?**

Ultimately, the US trade deficit is a structural issue—dollar privilege, global industrial division, and policy choices have long been locked in. Relying solely on unilateral measures like tariffs cannot change the overall situation. To truly achieve trade balance and sustainable development, deep reforms are needed, such as adjusting domestic economic structures and reshaping global trade rules—there are no shortcuts.

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RunWithRugs

· 01-12 00:19

This American approach has long been a vicious cycle; stop messing around with tariffs.

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RektDetective

· 01-11 21:30

Bro, this analysis has some substance, but I think the US has long since accepted this set of rules. The dollar printing press combined with trade deficits is basically an art of arbitrage. Tariffs are also a game of negotiation; Trump is just flexing his muscles. The supply chain is in chaos, and the hardest hit are retail investors holding coins. Talking about structural reforms, haha, will the US really change? It's a struggle between capital and lobbying groups; it's not something we need to worry about. The crypto market needs to bottom out; amidst this macro chaos, there are actually opportunities.

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MrRightClick

· 01-11 06:15

Tariffs can't really cure the root problem, the US knows that well --- People in Rust Belt states better brace themselves; structural issues won't be reversed so quickly --- Basically, it's a privilege of the US dollar that has been nurtured—who dares to challenge it? --- The dependency trap analysis is spot on; Southeast Asia is struggling right now inside it --- Trump wants to use the old tricks again; will this time really work? --- When the supply chain gets disrupted, we also have to bear the impact --- It's great for American consumers, but the cost has been passed on to others --- The global financial system is already on edge because of this trade deficit --- Decades of hollowing out manufacturing, it's a bit late to wake up now --- Maintaining currency system stability is much more complex than tariffs

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 01-09 10:33

The whole tariff thing really can't be fixed; the root cause is the privilege of the US dollar. --- The rust belt still has to continue decaying unless we cut and restructure. --- Dependency trap? Wake up, countries. It's long overdue to diversify risks. --- When the supply chain gets disrupted, the whole world suffers. Tradeoffs are really hard. --- The US has enjoyed decades of dividends; now trying to reverse tariffs is pure fantasy. --- The disease of industrial hollowing out can't be fixed with money, brother. --- The three-layer game sounds nice, but basically it's just each side choking each other. --- What keeps the financial system stable? Constant money printing to keep it alive, haha. --- Reshaping trade rules is even harder than landing on the moon. Don't bother. --- US consumers get the benefits, but middle American workers face unemployment. This deal is too unethical.

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fren.eth

· 01-09 10:24

The playbook of dollar hegemony has long needed to change; tariffs are just a smokescreen. --- Rust belt decline is well said; the grassroots have long been abandoned. --- Once the dependency trap breaks, the whole world is doomed; we all will suffer. --- Trump wants to use the old tricks again, how funny. --- Structural problems are not so easy to fix unless there's a reorganization of roles. --- Printing more dollars and issuing more bonds—this cycle is truly relentless. --- Disrupted supply chains have caused our shopping costs to soar directly. --- In plain terms, the US is making a profit now wanting to turn hostile, which is a bit excessive. --- The global financial system relies on a trade deficit to sustain itself; it will collapse sooner or later. --- If a trade war breaks out, no one will be better off.

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CexIsBad

· 01-09 10:16

Dollar hegemony has been played for so many years. Now they want to break it with tariffs? Haha, that's too naive. --- The Rust Belt has long been dead. Who's to blame... In the end, it's still the chives who pay the price. --- Relying on the trap of dependence is not wrong, but who in the world isn't being held hostage by the US? --- Trump's reciprocal tariffs are just closing your eyes and stealing a bell. When the supply chain is disrupted, everyone suffers. --- Structural problems can't be fixed. The US won't voluntarily give up its ace card, the dollar. --- What are consumers happy about? Behind cheap goods are countless lost jobs. --- Talking about deep reforms, but how can interest groups agree? It's unrealistic. --- The global trade system was originally designed with the US at the center. Now they want to reshape it? Wake up. --- The national debt is growing and will eventually explode. It's just a matter of time. --- Other countries rely on trade surpluses with the US to survive. Once the US turns hostile, there's no way out. Who dares to resist?

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