Bitcoin Forecast 2025: Can Tom Lees Reach the $100,000 Target Without New Buyers?

The well-known analyst Tom Lee has recently made a forecast that Bitcoin could surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2025. This prediction initially seems bold given the current market situation – but crypto news show that there is still a realistic path to achieve this target despite weak capital flows.

Market Indicators Indicate Selling Pressure

Technical analysis reveals two key hurdles for Tom Lee’s Bitcoin forecast. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) – an indicator that measures the strength of capital inflows and outflows – is currently in the negative territory. Although the Bitcoin price increased modestly from mid to late December, the CMF also rose by about 68 percent, but remains below zero. This signals that institutional and larger market participants are reducing their positions, while the price can still stay stable.

The picture becomes even clearer when looking at the behavior of long-term HODLers. These committed holders typically sell very late and often signal a trend reversal. The net positions show: on November 23, long-term holders sold about 97,800 BTC daily. One month later, on December 23, this amount was nearly 279,000 BTC per day – an increase of 185 percent. This wave of sales indicates that even convinced investors are reducing their holdings.

The Short-Squeeze as the Key to the $100,000 Mark

Despite these unfavorable conditions, there is still a way for Bitcoin – albeit an unconventional one. The market is currently massively over-leveraged in short positions. The liquidation charts of the last 30 days show: the short liquidation volume is around $3.41 billion USD, while long liquidations amount to only about $2.14 billion USD. In other words: more than 60 percent of leveraged positions are betting on falling prices.

This creates a critical dynamic – Bitcoin does not necessarily need massive new buying power. Instead, a forced price surge could trigger liquidations of short positions. These forced coverages would automatically generate buying pressure and trigger further liquidations – a so-called liquidation cascade that amplifies itself.

Critical Price Levels Determine the Success of the Forecast

The current Bitcoin price is around $90,420 USD, placing it very close to the key levels. The first critical level is at $91,220 USD. If Bitcoin surpasses and holds this level, some short positions with low leverage could be liquidated – a development that could improve market sentiment.

However, the real turning point is at $97,820 USD. This price level has repeatedly stopped Bitcoin since mid-November and marks the highest concentration of short liquidations. If Bitcoin breaks through here, almost the entire $3.41 billion USD in short leverage would come under pressure. A breakthrough at this level could quickly lead to a rise to the psychological mark of $100,380 USD – all without the need for strong fundamental capital inflows or purchases from long-term investors.

Scenario for the Forecast: What Happens if Bitcoin Fails?

The crypto news community should also watch for the opposite case. If Bitcoin remains below $91,220 USD and continues to trade sideways, a short squeeze becomes unlikely. In this case, weak capital flows and ongoing sales by long-term holders would once again dominate. Tom Lee’s ambitious target for 2025 would then be significantly more difficult, if not impossible, to reach.

The current market situation illustrates that Bitcoin is caught between two forces: determined selling pressure on one side and massive leveraged short positions on the other. The prediction depends on a simple but critical question – will these short positions be forced to close?