2026-01-09 10:30:36

The Bitcoin in 2026 is no longer just a simple rebound at the end of a bear market.

From a technical perspective, recent signs of recovery have indeed appeared, and in the short term, a cautiously optimistic outlook is possible. But if we zoom out and look at the structure, the conditions to support a truly sustained bull market are still not fully in place. Historical data shows that once the price falls below the annual moving average, it often enters a more difficult phase. Coupled with weakening incremental funds and slowing inflows, this cycle seems to be entering a stage that tests stock-picking ability and trading discipline.

**Super Whales Are Quietly Reducing Holdings**

On-chain data provides some interesting signals. Long-term holders are gradually reallocating their chips. After the Bitcoin spot ETF launched in early 2024, those super whales did increase their purchases when prices dipped at the start of the year. But since October 2024, their attitude suddenly shifted—from "adding positions" to "reducing positions."

In total, this group has sold off nearly $61 billion worth of Bitcoin. In the past 30 days, they have continued to net sell. It sounds like they are offloading, but a closer look reveals it’s not quite the same—these selling pressures have been mainly absorbed by medium-sized whales, so the market has been oscillating at high levels rather than experiencing a sudden crash.

Compared to the peak in spring 2021, when there was indiscriminate dumping, this round of reduction is more orderly—typical of mature funds at the end of a cycle. This also suggests that Bitcoin has at least entered a cyclical top zone.

Incremental funds are clearly weakening, and prices are approaching key support levels. At this moment, precise selection and strict execution of trading plans may be more important than blindly increasing positions.

BTC3,75%

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FlashLoanKing

· 01-12 06:56

Whales are running, retail investors are still chasing... This pace is a bit uncomfortable to watch.

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WhaleInTraining

· 01-09 11:00

$61 billion in shipments... The whales' move this time looks like the final setup before harvesting the leeks. An orderly sell-off is the most terrifying, indicating that they have already calculated everything in advance.

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SelfStaking

· 01-09 10:58

Whales offloading 61 billion, this pace is indeed different, has that vibe. --- Another year-end, another cycle end, it's making me a bit anxious... --- Weak incremental funds? Why am I still bullish? Different people see different things. --- Are medium whales taking over? Isn't that just dumping on retail investors... Those who understand, understand. --- Basically, big players are quietly running away. We need to be smarter. --- This cycle tests discipline, yet many are still going all-in. Laughs. --- 2026? Not likely. Let's look at this year's data first. --- Better than the indiscriminate dump in 2021, but this "orderly" approach is a bit unsettling.

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TommyTeacher1

· 01-09 10:57

61 billion dollars quietly slipped away, and you're still talking about recovery signals...

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defi_detective

· 01-09 10:54

610 billion USD in shipments is no small feat, the whales are really on the move… --- Once the annual line breaks, it’s game over; this logic is solid. --- So the current question isn’t whether we can make money, but whether we can survive until the next cycle. --- It looks like big players are gracefully exiting, while we’re still debating whether to rebound or not—laughable. --- Weakening incremental funds + high-level volatility, isn’t this just a sign of distribution? They’re doing it quite orderly. --- Precise stock picking? Bro, I even struggle to choose coins, let alone stocks. --- Why is the market only reacting this little to the whale reducing holdings by 610 billion… that’s the truly strange part. --- In 2021, it was a dump; this time, it’s a dance—just a more elegant way to cut the leeks. --- Wait, are you saying we should hold our positions now or run first… I’m a bit confused. --- The standard move for mature funds is to get retail investors to buy last—impressive.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-09 10:34

Whales quietly reduced holdings by 61 billion. This time, instead of crashing the market, they are acting in an orderly manner, which feels like setting a trap for retail investors. Breaking below the annual moving average is the end; history is just repeating itself. The weakening of incremental funds is indeed a clear signal. I believe this cycle is coming to an end, and stock-picking ability has become more important than the holdings themselves. It's the same old rhetoric; let's talk about the next cycle. Whale reductions are not high-level dumps, indicating they are not panicking at all. On the contrary, we should be cautious. The support level hasn't been broken yet; this analysis might be a bit premature. Executing a trading plan precisely sounds simple, but when it comes to actual operation, who isn't driven by emotions?

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