XLM Technical Analysis: What the RSI Buy Signal Suggests for the Next Development

Stellar (XLM) is approaching a critical turning point in early 2026. Currently trading around $0.23, it has recorded a +8.42% increase over the past 7 days. Technical analysis indicates multiple indicators suggesting a potential rebound for XLM, with particular attention to the RSI buy signals.

RSI Buy Signal and Current Status of XLM: What Technical Indicators Are Telling Us

Our technical analysis of XLM shows an RSI value of 36.43, suggesting it is approaching oversold territory. Historically, this position often precedes a rebound, and in the current market environment, an RSI rising above 40 could serve as a buy signal.

The MACD histogram showing a positive 0.0002 indicates easing selling pressure and the early stages of bullish momentum. The stochastic indicator (%K at 22.74, %D at 21.63) also confirms oversold conditions but has not reached extreme levels, leaving room for natural upward momentum development.

Importance of Price Levels: From $0.20 to $0.24

XLM’s current support level at $0.20 represents a strong recent support zone. The %B indicator within the Bollinger Bands is at 0.1375, near the lower band, suggesting a potential mean reversion toward the mid-band (around $0.22).

If the bullish scenario continues, XLM is expected to follow these stages within two weeks:

• First target: $0.22 (SMA 20 resistance line, short-term +10% increase)
• Second target: $0.24 (SMA 50 key resistance, medium-term +20% increase)
• Expansion scenario: Rally to $0.30 (requires daily volume exceeding $8.3 million and RSI above 50)

Risk Management and Bearish Scenario: Addressing Downside Risks

The main risk to the upward scenario for XLM is a breakdown below the $0.20 support line. If this level is lost, a decline toward the 52-week lows or psychological support levels between $0.15 and $0.18 could occur.

Given the recent 24-hour range of $0.20–$0.21, the current price movement remains within a sideways zone, and volume patterns will be a key factor in determining future direction.

Recommended Trading Strategy: Entry Points with Strict Risk Management

Based on our analysis, a conservative position sizing combined with selective buying is recommended:

Suggested Entry Zones

• Main entry: $0.20–$0.205 (within support cluster)
• Stop-loss: $0.195 (just below key support, approximately 2.5% risk)
• Initial take profit: $0.22
• Extended take profit: $0.24

Utilizing dollar-cost averaging around the $0.20 level during bearish phases can help secure upside exposure while maintaining optimal risk management. It is advisable to add to positions gradually as RSI buy signals develop.

Technical Confirmation Signals to Watch

To determine whether the bullish scenario for XLM will materialize, the following indicators should be monitored:

• RSI surpassing 40 (confirming momentum strengthening)
• MACD line crossing above the signal line (bullish crossover)
• Volume increase on moves above $0.21 (counteracting sell pressure)

Price Outlook for the Next 7–14 Days: Moderate Confidence Forecast

Our comprehensive analysis suggests that over the next 1–2 weeks, XLM could target $0.22–$0.24. This represents a potential maximum +20% increase from the current around $0.23.

This scenario assumes the $0.20 support remains intact and the RSI buy signals are confirmed. The one-month target range is estimated at $0.21–$0.26, depending on broader market conditions and XLM’s ability to regain moving average support levels.

If $0.20 fails to hold, this bullish scenario would be invalidated, and a reassessment of support levels would be necessary.

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