How U.S. Antimony's Supply Advantage Could Reshape the Critical Minerals Market

The Strategic Shortage Driving Antimony Price Momentum

Antimony has quietly become one of the most consequential materials in modern technology. Beyond its established role in semiconductors and traditional manufacturing, this element forms a cornerstone of artificial intelligence infrastructure, making its availability a national security concern for Western governments.

The geopolitical landscape around antimony supply has shifted dramatically. China and Russia collectively control over 60% of global antimony ore production, while China dominates export markets. Recent export threats and restrictions from Beijing have sent shockwaves through defense contractors and tech companies alike. Though a complete antimony export ban didn’t materialize, the threat alone has triggered urgent action from policymakers and corporate procurement teams who can’t afford supply disruptions.

This supply crisis has created a rare market opening: U.S. Antimony Corporation (NYSEMKT: UAMY) stands as North America’s sole commercial antimony producer. The stock has captured investor attention with a 900% five-year gain, though recent volatility—trading around 190% up in 2025 with a $730 million market cap—reflects both the opportunity and the risks inherent in commodity plays.

Why Competition Matters Less Than You’d Think

Unlike most commodities markets, antimony production faces an unusual constraint: geographic scarcity of viable producers. Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) and other international miners have antimony projects in development, but commercial production remains years away. Meanwhile, government agencies and technology giants need antimony supplies today, not in 2027 or 2028.

This timing gap is critical. The Pentagon and leading AI semiconductor manufacturers have urgent procurement needs that won’t wait for competitor capacity to come online. They’re willing to pay premium prices for immediate supply certainty—a dynamic that directly benefits the company currently able to deliver finished products to the market.

The financial impact is already visible. U.S. Antimony’s revenue trajectory shows 182% year-over-year growth in the first nine months of 2025, with Q3 revenue more than tripling compared to the prior year. Management guidance suggests $40-43 million in 2025 revenue, scaling to $125 million by 2026—a projection that depends entirely on sustained antimony price strength and production capacity utilization.

“We’re delivering products to customers today while our competitors discuss their plans for several years from now,” said Joe Bardswich, Executive Vice President and Chief Mining Engineer, underscoring the competitive advantage that first-mover status provides in a supply-constrained market.

Government Backing as a Market Accelerator

The U.S. government isn’t merely watching this market develop—it’s actively shaping it. The Pentagon awarded a $245 million contract to replenish the National Defense Stockpile with U.S.-produced antimony, signaling that policymakers view domestic supply as a critical strategic asset. An additional $10 million Department of Defense delivery order reinforces this commitment.

These contracts do more than provide immediate revenue; they validate antimony’s importance across defense and intelligence communities. When government agencies commit capital on this scale, it sends powerful signals to private sector buyers and financial markets alike.

The company’s operational footprint reflects this strategic focus. Two antimony smelting plants—one in Montana, one in Mexico—provide production redundancy. U.S. Antimony holds the exclusive DOD-approved certification for fully integrated antimony mining and processing in North America, a designation that creates regulatory barriers for potential competitors even if they achieve production capacity.

The company is also expanding into adjacent critical minerals. Mining claims in Alaska and Ontario’s Sudbury Basin position U.S. Antimony for future production scaling. An Idaho zeolite mine adds another dimension: zeolite serves nuclear remediation needs and may become strategically important if technology companies accelerate adoption of nuclear power for AI data centers.

The Price Dynamics Reshaping Economics

Antimony price appreciation in 2025 has fundamentally altered the economics of domestic production. Higher antimony prices directly expand margins for established producers, making previously marginal projects economically viable. They also raise the threshold for new entrants, as higher capital requirements offset lower operational costs.

For U.S. Antimony, price movements act as a revenue multiplier on top of volume growth. If antimony prices stabilize at elevated levels while China maintains export restrictions, the combination creates a multi-year tailwind for earnings expansion. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease and China relaxes export controls, prices could compress—a risk that makes this a leveraged play on both supply and geopolitics.

Evaluating the Investment Case

U.S. Antimony trades at a premium valuation justified by its monopolistic position and government support, but it’s also one of the market’s most volatile securities. Investors comfortable with commodity-driven price swings and geopolitical risk may view the risk-reward favorably given the scarcity of pure-play domestic antimony exposure.

However, this remains a speculative position. Supply disruptions could reduce as competitors eventually come online. Antimony prices could decline if recession fears dampen AI spending or if global geopolitical tensions ease. The company’s ability to execute on $125 million revenue guidance for 2026 requires sustained production and continued strong antimony pricing.

The opportunity is real, but it’s not without risk.