BLBD Stock Surges Ahead of Market: Breaking Down the Numbers Behind Blue Bird's Rally

Blue Bird delivered an impressive performance on its latest trading session, with shares climbing to $47.79—a +2.2% jump that easily outpaced the broader market’s +0.64% gain on the S&P 500. The Dow industrial average rose 1.23% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.69%, making BLBD’s move particularly noteworthy.

Earnings Projections Paint a Mixed Picture

Looking ahead to earnings disclosure, here’s what investors need to digest: Blue Bird’s projected EPS stands at $0.8 for the upcoming quarter, which represents a 13.04% decline year-over-year. However, there’s a silver lining on the revenue front—the company is forecasted to bring in $350 million, up 11.51% from the prior-year quarter.

On a full-year basis, the picture becomes clearer. Zacks Consensus Estimates project Blue Bird will deliver $4.21 per share in earnings against $1.57 billion in annual revenue. These figures translate to a -3.88% dip in EPS and a +5.74% boost in revenue compared to last year’s numbers.

Valuation: Is BLBD a Bargain Right Now?

When it comes to pricing, Blue Bird is trading at an attractive discount. The stock’s Forward P/E ratio sits at 11.11, meaningfully below its industry average of 12.73. That tells you investors are getting more bang for their buck with BLBD compared to peers in the Automotive - Domestic space.

The PEG ratio—which factors in earnings growth expectations—currently stands at 2.14 for Blue Bird. The broader automotive industry averages 1.92 on this metric, suggesting the school bus manufacturer carries a slight premium relative to growth expectations. Still, the Automotive - Domestic industry maintains a solid Zacks Industry Rank of 78, placing it in the top 32% among 250+ tracked sectors.

What Analysts Are Watching

The Zacks Rank system provides real clarity on sentiment. Currently, Blue Bird carries a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy)—a rating that reflects positive analyst momentum. Historically, #1-ranked stocks have delivered average annual returns of +25% since 1988, showing the power of estimate revisions in predicting stock movement.

Over the past 30 days, consensus EPS estimates for Blue Bird have remained stable, which typically signals that analysts feel confident in their near-term outlook. Any upward revisions to these estimates could serve as a bullish catalyst for the stock in coming weeks.

The Broader Context

It’s worth noting that while BLBD gained ground yesterday, the stock had previously lagged its sector—dropping 8.8% before the recent rally, even as the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector advanced 3.27% and the S&P 500 climbed 0.55%. This reversal suggests renewed investor interest and could indicate a turning point for the company. Blue Bird’s valuation advantage combined with its Zacks Rank positioning makes it a stock worth monitoring as the next earnings season approaches.