When Will the U.S. Economy Tip into Recession? 22 States Are Already There

Is the U.S. in a recession? That’s the question millions are asking as economic data paints an increasingly bleak picture. While the nation hasn’t officially entered recession territory overall, the reality on the ground tells a different story — 22 states are either already experiencing recession or standing dangerously close to one.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, provided sobering analysis on social media: states accounting for nearly a third of U.S. GDP are either in or face high recession risk, while another third are merely treading water. This fragmented economic landscape reveals why national headlines keep warning about a potential downturn.

The Recession Risk Is Spreading Unevenly Across America

What makes this situation particularly concerning is that recession pressure isn’t concentrated in one region — it’s distributed like cracks spreading across a wall. Some areas show active contraction, while others have hit a growth ceiling after years of expansion.

The Washington D.C. region faces particular headwinds due to government employment cuts. Meanwhile, Southern states maintain relative strength, though their expansion is noticeably cooling. California and New York deserve special attention: together they represent over one-fifth of total U.S. GDP. Their stability acts as a crucial stabilizer — if these economic powerhouses falter, the entire nation enters danger territory.

The 22 States in Recession Risk (Ranked by Economic Resilience)

Zandi’s assessment identified these 22 states as most vulnerable. They’re ranked from those with stronger underlying foundations to those facing the most acute pressures:

1. Wyoming
2. Montana
3. Minnesota
4. Mississippi
5. Kansas
6. Massachusetts
7. Washington
8. Georgia
9. New Hampshire
10. Maryland
11. Rhode Island
12. Illinois
13. Delaware
14. Virginia
15. Oregon
16. Connecticut
17. South Dakota
18. New Jersey
19. Maine
20. Iowa
21. West Virginia
22. District of Columbia

Despite ranking as “strongest” among these 22, every state on this list carries significant economic weight and pressure. Together, they represent a substantial chunk of national GDP — meaning their collective weakness could trigger the very nationwide recession the U.S. is trying to avoid.

What This Means for Your Money

The interconnected nature of modern economies means recession risk in one-third of U.S. states isn’t a regional problem — it’s a systemic warning. As these regions slow or contract, consumer spending weakens, business investment tightens, and uncertainty spreads to other sectors. This economic deterioration typically flows into risk assets, making it a consideration for investors monitoring both traditional and alternative investments.

Understanding state-level economic health provides early warning signals before national recession headlines become unavoidable.