Gold at $4,000: how the global reconfiguration of reserves is driving precious metal futures

During 2025, gold broke the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce, reflecting a profound shift in the global financial architecture. Futures gold markets are leading this movement, with unprecedented volumes indicating a voracious appetite for hedging.

The Triggers: from Basel III to de-dollarization

The Basel III regulatory reform in 2019 was a turning point. By reclassifying gold as an asset with zero risk, banks no longer bore the maintenance costs, opening the door to accumulate more. But what truly accelerated everything was the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022: when over $300 billion in Russian reserves were frozen, the vulnerability of the dollar as a safe haven currency became clear.

Central banks awakened. De-dollarization ceased to be an academic concept and became a state strategy. China was no exception: shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, a move that resonated throughout the global financial system.

The erosion of purchasing power accelerated everything

The pandemic did not just bring lockdowns. Massive monetary expansion eroded the dollar’s purchasing power, making gold less of a luxury and more of a defensive necessity. Investors saw their money lose value and looked for a safe haven. Gold offered that tangible refuge that paper currency could not guarantee.

Today, central bank gold purchases reached unprecedented levels, redefining futures markets and marking a new era in international reserve management.