#比特币价格分析与趋势 孔剑平's this judgment is worth paying attention to. The driving logic of Bitcoin is indeed switching, and this is not just an emotional speculation but a trend that can be verified through on-chain data.

In past bull markets, indicators such as new addresses, on-chain activity, and the amount of coins flowing into exchanges would rise simultaneously—this is a typical "cognitive diffusion" characteristic. But since this year, even as prices rise, I observe that: the holding structure of large addresses is changing, institutional holdings are far more stable than retail investors, and the proportion of addresses that haven't moved for a long time continues to increase. All these point to the fact that chips are being frozen.

The launch of ETFs has accelerated this process. Once BTC becomes part of mainstream asset allocation frameworks, some liquidity is permanently frozen. This means the circulating supply is effectively shrinking, and active chips that are repeatedly traded are decreasing. Supply constraints will indeed become a new price support—no need for more people to believe in Bitcoin, just fewer and fewer willing sellers.

This switching point is critical for investment research. If the driving force shifts from consensus expansion to scarcity, then strategic judgments need to be adjusted accordingly. Paying attention to indicators such as large transfers, exchange outflows, and the growth of long-term holdings will be more valuable than just following market sentiment.