Many people ask me how I survived the bear market. To be honest, it's not because of good luck, but because I’ve stepped on too many pits. Today, I’ll share the trading logic I’ve summarized over these years.

**Level 1: Don’t mine in the trash heap**

I’ve seen too many people obsessed with bottom-fishing obscure coins, enduring the entire bear market without waiting for spring. Now my rule is very strict: only focus on coins that have truly caught the attention of capital.

Watching the top gainers daily is easy, but the key is to identify those that have been in the top 20 for three consecutive days and add them to your watchlist. Why do this? Capital flows. It tends to cluster in hot spots first and won’t randomly move into obscure coins without reason.

Another trap is those "cigarette butt coins"—whitepapers that boast wildly, but the codebase hasn’t been updated in half a year, the team is anonymous, and trading volume is pitifully low. No matter how cheap, I avoid them because they’re likely to go to zero.

What’s the real signal? The combination of social buzz and on-chain data. Looking back at 2023’s AI coin explosion and the frenzy of Memecoins in 2024, the discussion volume on platforms like X was always ahead of price increases. When a coin’s social volume surges, and TVL and user numbers grow more than 50% month-over-month, that’s when you should pay closer attention.

**Level 2: Only act when the monthly MACD shows a golden cross**

The biggest mistake beginners make is trying to guess the bottom. A few lucky times might work, but playing like that long-term will wear out your account.

My strict rule: before the monthly MACD shows a golden cross, any rise is just a rebound, not worth participating in. Sounds conservative? But being conservative is often the key to lasting the longest.

When Bitcoin formed a monthly death cross in June last year, it rebounded 10% in the short term, and many people were eager to buy. I chose to stay in cash. Over the next two months, the price fell 30%. Only after the MACD confirmed a golden cross did I consider entering, which led to catching the main rally.

The signal to add positions isn’t complicated: if the price retraces to the 60-day moving average with volume, and the daily volume exceeds 30% of the 5-day average volume, that’s a real support. Better to miss some opportunities than to make mistakes.

**Level 3: Break the line and walk away, no mercy**

One of the most painful truths in crypto is that most people get wiped out where they should have cut losses.

My stop-loss rule is: sell immediately when a technical line breaks, no sentimentality or bargaining with the market. As for taking profits, I tier my gains: sell 30% after doubling, then when it triples, close 50%, and let the rest run. This way, I lock in profits and avoid missing out entirely.

Many say this approach is too cautious, but I’ve seen too many accounts blow up in what seemed like an "inevitable" rally. By the time you regret it, it’s too late.