Have you ever had this feeling—trying to chase hot topics every day but always falling behind? Today you hear that a certain coin is booming, and tomorrow you hear a bigger story. Your eyes are overwhelmed, and your wallet is also messing around blindly. I used to be like that too, until I figured out a relatively stable method, which I want to share with everyone.

**Grasping the Big Picture is the Premise**

First, you need to look at what story the global funds are most interested in right now. Over the past two years, AI and DePIN have been the two most attractive themes for institutions and large capital inflows. Why? Because these stories have enough imagination space to attract traditional financial money. Chasing small concepts blindly often yields half the results with twice the effort; it’s better to focus on the big directions that can carry real capital flow.

**On-Chain Data Tells the Truth**

No matter how beautiful the project team’s PPT is, it can’t hide the data. I usually focus on three indicators.

The first is the number of active unique addresses. This reflects whether real users are increasing or decreasing, indicating whether the ecosystem is accumulating or declining. Fluffy data may look lively, but address growth cannot deceive.

The second is the trend of TVL. An increasing lock-up volume indicates genuine belief in the project; conversely, if funds are flowing out, you should be alert. Also, check whether these funds are concentrated in a few large wallets or dispersed among participants—latter is less risky, former is more dangerous.

The third is the frequency of code updates on GitHub. Whether the team is actively working can be seen from code commits. If there are no updates for a long time, it’s probably resting on its laurels.

**Community Temperature Can Say a Lot**

After passing the first two checks, timing is crucial. My approach is to dive into the core community of the project for a period and feel the real discussion atmosphere. A dead community indicates low enthusiasm; on the other hand, if everyone is actively discussing new collaborations or feature upgrades, it often means market expectations are building up. The best time to get in is usually before major news fully breaks out, when insiders are already starting to move.

**A Few Examples I’m Watching**

Currently, I’m paying close attention to projects like RNDR. From a story perspective, AI rendering has practical application scenarios; from data, active users are increasing month by month; community discussions are also heating up. The key is whether it can break through previous high prices.

Another is FET. The story framework of AI agents is clear, and the ecosystem of collaborations is expanding. Recently, the community has been expecting a major version upgrade. The market response before and after the upgrade often directly reflects investors’ genuine recognition of the project.

**The Core Logic Is That Simple**

My operational principle is straightforward: only act when all three layers of signals align. The benefit of this approach is avoiding blindly following the trend; the downside is sometimes missing quick surges. But in the long run, this relatively cautious method can help you avoid many pitfalls, making it more cost-effective for ordinary investors.