Bitcoin just broke through 96,000, and gold also hit a new high, making the market incredibly lively. The trigger for all this was the latest CPI data—although in line with expectations, core inflation was slightly below forecasts. This indeed brought a gentle breeze to the crypto market.

However, to be honest: short-term positives are clear, but long-term caution is the real focus. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates in the short term, and the probability of a rate cut in the long term has only slightly increased. Capital has indeed flowed in temporarily, and risk appetite has risen, but once subsequent data or policy signals tighten, this rally could quickly reverse.

Looking at this market from three dimensions:

**Capital and Sentiment:** The softness in core inflation has eased concerns about aggressive rate hikes, stimulating short-term surges in BTC and ETH. But don’t forget, the high-interest-rate environment still suppresses sustained capital inflows—this is a long-term constraint.

**Price Volatility:** It’s a typical "positive news leads to rise → profit-taking" rhythm. Bitcoin and Ethereum surged sharply and then pulled back; in the coming days, high volatility and range-bound oscillations are expected to continue. Be cautious with perpetual contracts; high leverage chasing gains can easily lead to liquidation.

**Capital Flows:** Gold hit new highs again, absorbing some safe-haven and inflation-hedging funds, which means the short-term attractiveness of crypto assets is relatively limited. Unless the dollar weakens or liquidity loosens, capital may continue flowing into traditional assets like gold.

**Trading Advice:** It’s simple: in the short term, you can use volatility to trade long and short swings, but be sure to set stop-losses and strictly control positions. High leverage really makes it easy to get liquidated. For the long term, don’t change your layout based on a single data point; focus on tracking real interest rates, the dollar index, and other fundamental indicators.

Next, keep a close eye on US Treasury yields, the dollar index, Fed statements, employment data, PCE figures, as well as on-chain perpetual funding rates and large transfers. These are key signals for judging the subsequent market trend.