The volatility in the crypto market is not without pattern; it repeatedly unfolds within a relatively fixed bull-bear cycle. Historically, there are usually four distinct stages.

The first is the crash phase, where the market plunges into panic, frequent liquidations occur, and a chain of liquidations spreads everywhere. Then comes the winter phase, where after the price stops falling, it begins to consolidate, and overall market sentiment remains cold. Next is the accumulation phase, during which fundamentals improve but market participants' confidence has yet to fully recover. Finally, the main bull run begins, with narratives suddenly exploding, large amounts of capital flowing in, and a scene of全民参与 (全民参与 -全民 participation) emerging.

Back to the present. Since the black swan event in mid-October, you will notice that discussions about cryptocurrencies have become increasingly muted. People's attention has shifted to traditional assets like stocks, gold, silver, and precious metals. In terms of performance, the crypto market has long passed the panic and explosion pain of the first stage and is now clearly in the winter phase, but there is still considerable room before reaching the full optimism of the fourth stage.

Prices are no longer crashing, but they also fail to form an upward trend. Even when good news appears, market reactions are quite limited. This dullness is actually the most common state in the cycle.

To put it simply, this is the late winter stage, where market confidence is slowly being restored. During this period, emotions no longer matter; the focus shifts to reallocation of chips and patience. Don't forget, a bear market is the best time to discover truly valuable assets, and profits are often the most substantial. Projects like LINK, AVAX, and FIL are now worth paying attention to.