#加密市场情绪低迷 After reading this report from Cantor Fitzgerald, I find it quite interesting. They predict that by 2026, the crypto winter may arrive earlier, with Bitcoin prices continuing to be under pressure and even testing $75,000—this logic is based on the four-year cycle in history, which doesn't sound entirely implausible.

But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not where the price will fall to, but that the nature of this decline is completely different. There are no large-scale liquidations, no systemic crashes; instead, institutions are continuing to adopt. What does this mean? It means that the follow-the-trend strategies during price declines need to be adjusted.

Previously, traders relying on leverage to push prices higher often got wiped out during periods of low sentiment. Now, I pay more attention to those with a steady style and a focus on capital management—these experts can actually demonstrate their true skills in a bear market. The divergence between fundamentals and prices in areas like DeFi and tokenized assets is growing, indicating that institutions are quietly positioning themselves while retail investors remain in panic.

At such times, instead of following short-term traders chasing quick profits based on emotional swings, it’s better to select those with long-term logic and patience. In terms of position sizing, I will reduce allocations to aggressive traders and allocate more funds to those who can survive in a bear market. The lower the market sentiment, the clearer it becomes who the real experts are.