The influence of the cryptocurrency options market is weakening, and spot market price fluctuations may become more subdued

According to a report by independent analyst Markus Thielen at Matrixport, the dominance of the options market in influencing cryptocurrency price movements is declining, indicating that short-term spot market prices are likely to become more stable rather than experiencing sharp volatility.

Data shows that the open interest in BTC and ETH options has significantly decreased from their peak in October and August 2025 (approximately $52 billion and $15 billion respectively), and has now fallen to around $28 billion and $5 billion.

This notable change also reflects shifts in market capital flows. In the short term, some capital inflows have slowed, with new positions becoming more cautious and selective. The market is also undergoing a continuous deleveraging process.

Specifically, although traders have recently been buying Bitcoin call options to express optimism about the future market, the previously common strategy of "long futures positions + put options hedging" in the Ethereum market is being gradually unwound, indicating that the market is actively reducing risk and deleveraging.

In summary, the driving force of options on spot market price volatility has diminished, suggesting that the market may be transitioning from a high-leverage, derivative-driven pattern dominated by options over the past two years to a new phase driven by more fundamental factors such as spot capital flows and macro narratives.

This structural change implies that the market is likely to escape the intense price swings caused by high-leverage derivatives, with short-term volatility potentially easing further. Such a more stable market environment is also a necessary foundation for forming healthier and sustainable long-term trend cycles.

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