🔔 Tonight marks a critical moment — the US November retail sales data and PPI will be released at 21:30, simultaneously with the Supreme Court’s final ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The convergence of these two events will impact the crypto market through three channels: interest rate expectations, market liquidity, and policy certainty. In simple terms, short-term volatility will be high, and the subsequent trend depends on whether the overall direction can be confirmed.

**The Double-Edged Sword of Retail Sales and PPI**

If the data shows persistent inflation (retail month-over-month exceeding 0.4%, PPI year-over-year or month-over-month rising), the market will lower expectations for rate cuts in 2026, US Treasury yields will rise, and the dollar will appreciate — at this point, crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, will face pressure as funds flow into safe-haven assets, and futures liquidation orders will increase.

Conversely, if the data falls below expectations, indicating weaker demand, expectations for rate cuts will reignite, liquidity conditions will improve, and short-term crypto prices could rebound. However, caution is needed regarding the risk of a "recession trade" — in this environment, risk appetite could suddenly reverse.

If the data meets expectations, volatility will be relatively restrained, and the market will continue to wait for the Fed’s next stance and the tariff ruling outcome.

**Three Possible Outcomes of the Tariff Ruling and Chain Reactions in Mining**

The ruling could support, oppose, or partially support the tariff policy. If tariffs are ultimately implemented, costs for domestic US mining companies will significantly increase, and global hash rate distribution may further shift toward regions with lower tariffs, changing the geographical landscape of the mining industry.

**How to Operate in the Next 2 Hours**

The peak of volatility will be 1-2 hours after 21:30. It’s essential to set stop-loss orders and avoid chasing the market or panic selling. In the medium term, if inflation persists and tariffs are implemented, the crypto market may enter a range-bound consolidation; if rate cut expectations reignite, institutional buying (such as spot ETFs) could push Bitcoin upward through a breakout.

Tonight is a true watershed moment — are you ready?