Can the shift in crypto policy break the four-year cycle of Bitcoin?

2026-01-14 12:00:10

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【Crypto World】The US cryptocurrency policy environment is clearly improving. Recently, the US stock market has been continuously rising, and the crypto market has also become more active, closely related to the policy shift. Industry insiders point out that this policy favorable trend may be breaking the long-standing four-year cycle pattern followed by Bitcoin.

The traditional view holds that Bitcoin’s price movements are closely related to the halving cycle of mining rewards, forming a predictable four-year volatility pattern. However, if macroeconomic conditions, policy support, and other external factors undergo significant changes, this pattern could be rewritten. The current strong performance of US stocks and the advancement of crypto-friendly policies could become new variables that break the old cycle.

Market participants need to adjust their thinking—relying solely on historical cycles to judge future trends is no longer sufficient. The weight of new factors such as policy developments, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional capital flows is increasing.

BTC3,38%

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LiquidityWizard

· 8h ago

The policy dividends are here, so how can we still believe in a four-year cycle? It's all institutions slapping us retail investors in the face.

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HappyToBeDumped

· 8h ago

Four-year cycle? Laughing out loud, now it's a policy cycle. The historical pattern has been broken again, who still dares to go all-in? When US stocks rise, cryptocurrencies rise too. We've seen this routine so many times... As soon as the policy shifts, someone will start saying "the pattern has been broken." Didn't they say the same thing before? Institutional funds are the real boss, retail investors are just jumping along. The four-year cycle is fake; the Federal Reserve is the real one. Wait, isn't this still a cycle? Just called it a "policy cycle" now, haha. How can you make money without relying on historical cycles? Just guess blindly.

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MemeCurator

· 8h ago

Is the four-year cycle about to be broken again? A new story every year.

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