#数字资产市场动态 The rate cut dream is shattered? Traders are making big bets in the options market, betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout the year.

The macroeconomic situation is quietly changing. The current market expectations are undergoing subtle but profound shifts—shifting from "waiting for the first rate cut" at the beginning of the year to "possibly maintaining high rates in the second half."

What are the key variables?

**The Federal Reserve's true dilemma**

If by the first quarter of 2026, the labor market is still running hot and inflation remains above 2% without returning to target, what reason does the Fed have to start cutting rates? None. Market traders have clearly realized this logic and are hedging against the risk of "delayed rate cuts" through options positions.

**What does this mean? How will various assets react?**

— **The US dollar**: If high interest rates persist longer, the dollar will have support. Continued high interest rate differentials keep the dollar attractive.

— **The US bond market**: Once rate expectations are revised upward, medium- and short-term bond yields will rise. The entire yield curve may undergo a adjustment.

— **Stock sectors**: This gets complicated. On one hand, a strong economy will support corporate profits, which is positive for stocks. On the other hand, sustained high rates mean valuation pressures—especially for high-growth, low-profit growth stocks, which are most vulnerable to high interest rates.

— **Cryptocurrencies**: This is critical. In a high-interest environment, holding interest-free or low-interest assets increases opportunity costs. In other words, assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which absorb capital but do not generate interest, will become relatively less attractive. From a liquidity perspective, this could create some pressure.

**Summary of the core logic**

Traders are preparing for a key scenario: the Fed's "long stay at high levels" strategy may persist throughout 2026. This is not just a passive reaction to some data point but a systemic reassessment of the entire interest rate path reflected through the options market.

**Note**

These expectations are a snapshot of the market in January. The actual policy direction will ultimately depend on upcoming economic data—inflation figures, employment reports, GDP growth—which are the decisive factors. The options positions themselves are also hedges in both directions; it’s not that everyone is bearish on rate cuts, but rather that the cost of hedging against "delayed rate cuts" is rising significantly, and the market is defending against this possibility.