2026-01-14 12:11:11

#Strategy加仓BTC 【The cycle theory might be failing】Will Bitcoin's "Four-Year Curse" happen again?

Retail investors are still watching that old formula: the four-year cycle. However, market participants are starting to consider another question—whether this theory still works.

The US crypto policy is clearly shifting. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been steadily strengthening, and the overall environment in the capital markets is improving. These changes are reshaping the foundation on which Bitcoin operates.

The key question is simple: when the structure of funds changes, can history repeat itself as before?

From the perspective of large institutions, the answer might be no. Cycles exist because market participants' behavior patterns are relatively fixed. But when policy directions change, incremental funds flow in, and market structures upgrade—the old rules may become invalid.

The current environment is indeed different from the past.

$BTC $ETH $XRP

BTC4,22%

ETH6,09%

XRP2,79%

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 4h ago

I'm tired of the four-year cycle joke too. Once 🤷 institutions come in, the rules change completely, and retail investors are still using the old almanac.

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MysteryBoxOpener

· 4h ago

The four-year cycle thing, I think it's just a psychological placebo for retail investors. Institutions have long stopped buying into this... The logic of large capital entering the market has completely changed, so it's not surprising that the pattern has become ineffective.

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AlphaBrain

· 4h ago

Hmm... Institutional entry really changed the game, and this four-year cycle should have been discarded long ago.

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ser_ngmi

· 4h ago

The four-year cycle idea should have been abandoned long ago. Once institutional funds came in, it changed the nature of things, and retail investors are still sleepwalking there.

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