Yesterday early morning, Bitcoin once again broke upwards, surpassing the $96,000 mark. Watching the market filled with cheers, institutions are shouting to push towards $100,000, and the atmosphere is indeed heated.

But upon closer inspection of this wave of行情, I feel something is off. The price is rising aggressively, but the underlying logic is quietly loosening.

**Gold regains dominance? The halo of digital assets as a hedge is fading**

An interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin, priced in gold, has already fallen below 20 ounces at the beginning of 2026, hitting a nearly two-year low. In contrast, gold and silver are breaking through historical highs one after another.

What does this indicate? It shows that in the face of real gold and silver, investors are starting to vote with their feet. When inflation really knocks on the door, people still trust those ancient, tangible hard assets more than the story of "digital gold." Bitcoin was once touted as an inflation hedge, but now this halo is gradually fading.

**Halving cycle also失灵了？**

There’s an even more painful point. The traditional Bitcoin investors’ belief in the "four-year halving cycle"—a theory once hailed as a holy grail—is facing unprecedented challenges. Since the historic high of $125,000 in October 2025...

I haven't looked at all the details, but the outline of the problem is already clear. Does that cycle theory still work now? Probably not, and it’s worth questioning.

In the short term, the bullish momentum is fierce, but in the medium term, the market’s story is being rewritten.