On January 14th, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $96,000 mark, currently quoted at $95,176. This surge may seem fierce, but a closer look at institutional movements reveals a different picture.

Strategy holds 687,000 BTC, with an unrealized profit of 26.3%, totaling $51.8 billion. Their average purchase price is $75,353, which has increased by 25% from their cost basis to the current price. It sounds impressive, but this is precisely the time to be cautious.

Looking at historical patterns makes it clear. When institutional holdings' unrealized profits exceed 20%, the market often undergoes a correction of over 30%. On the eve of the 2021 bull market peak, institutional unrealized profits reached 28%, followed by a 50% crash. The current data pattern is eerily similar—high unrealized profits, new price highs, and retail investor enthusiasm.

How to respond? First, don’t be fooled by the hype of "breaking 96,000." Check your own cost basis. If your cost is above $80,000, consider reducing your position by 50% now—don’t wait to get out only after a loss. If your cost is below $70,000, you can hold but avoid adding to your position—this is not the time for greed.

The key point to understand is: when all retail investors are shouting "the bull market is here," it’s often a signal that smart money is quietly withdrawing. Institutional profits are indeed coming from retail investors’ money, not out of thin air. $96,000 is not the end of this rally; it could actually be the beginning of danger. True professionals don’t make money based on stories—they rely on data.