Recently, Bitcoin has been oscillating at high levels repeatedly, and some are beginning to worry whether the market has already peaked. However, from macroeconomic factors, on-chain data, and capital flows, the situation may not be so—BTC is very likely in the prelude to a new wave of upward movement.

Historical trends tell us that before each major Bitcoin rally, there is usually a period of painful sideways consolidation accompanied by intense volatility. This seemingly boring pattern is actually the main players doing two things: shedding short-term chips and absorbing high-quality chips at low prices. Currently, BTC's performance is very similar to the accumulation phase during mid-cycle bull markets in previous years.

On-chain data is even more interesting. The holdings of long-term holders continue to increase, while BTC inventories on exchanges are decreasing, indicating that large investors are continuously accumulating, while retail investors' fragmented chips are repeatedly washed out. The significance of smart money doing this is clear: circulating supply is shrinking, and once trading volume increases, the price elasticity will be quite considerable.

After the launch of spot ETFs, the composition of market participants has also changed. With institutional capital entering, they won't chase highs or be emotional; they will continue building positions in low-volatility zones. This explains why, in what appears to be a "boring" price range, capital is still flowing in continuously.

From a macro perspective, expectations of global interest rate cuts are growing stronger, the purchasing power of fiat currencies remains under long-term pressure, and the narrative of digital gold is reinforced once again. These factors together lay the foundation for Bitcoin's next wave of market movement.