Technical Setup Favors EUR to USD Rally: Breaking Above 1.1820 Could Trigger Further Upside

SelfCustodyIssues · 2026-01-15T11:37:52+00:00

The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently stable above the 100-day moving average at 1.1755, supported by strong technical indicators and recent ECB policy. Momentum signals suggest potential upward movement, while Fed uncertainties may further fuel euro strength. Traders should watch key resistance at 1.1820 and support at 1.1655 for future direction.

SelfCustodyIssues

2026-01-15 11:37:52

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The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading at 1.1755, showing resilience above a critical 100-day moving average. Recent monetary policy divergence has created a favorable backdrop for the eur to usd pair, with technical indicators suggesting room for upward movement.

Momentum Building on the Technical Front

The RSI indicator has climbed to 59.8, reflecting strengthening upward momentum without entering overbought territory—a textbook setup for continued buying pressure. Price action remains anchored above the 100-day EMA at 1.1635, which continues to slope upward and act as dynamic support for the medium-term trend.

Volatility has compressed as reflected by the narrowing Bollinger Bands, with the middle band positioned at 1.1738. This consolidation pattern often precedes directional breakouts. For the EUR/USD pair, the immediate challenge lies at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.1820, which represents the first significant resistance level. A daily close above this barrier would likely unlock additional gains in the eur to usd conversion rate.

Fundamental Drivers: ECB Policy vs. Fed Uncertainty

The European Central Bank’s decision to hold rates steady at its recent meeting, combined with forward guidance emphasizing a data-dependent approach rather than preset rate cuts, has underpinned euro strength. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments ruled out any pre-commitment to future rate paths, signaling caution about aggressive easing.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership succession creates a potential headwind for the US Dollar. Market participants are pricing in the possibility of a more dovish Fed Chair appointment, which could weigh on the Greenback and support the eur to usd rate over the near term.

Key Levels and Trading Outlook

Resistance: 1.1820 (upper Bollinger Band—primary target)
Support: 1.1655 (lower Bollinger Band—key downside protection)

Should the pair dip back toward the Bollinger middle band at 1.1738, this would represent a low-risk entry point for trend-following traders. A break below the 100-day EMA would shift the bias and expose support closer to 1.1655. Until volatility expands significantly, the overall setup remains tilted toward buyers on EUR/USD weakness.

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