Ouro breaks historical record; bullish momentum remains strong despite Fed's obstacles

The most sought-after commodity as a safe haven has just reached unprecedented levels, hitting US$ 4,600 during Monday’s Asian session. This rise represents the third consecutive day of gains, reinforcing a positive movement that extends to five of the last six trading sessions. The confluence of geopolitical protection demands and weaknesses in the US dollar has created a favorable scenario for the XAU/USD pair, although technical signs of saturation may moderate immediate advances.

The Fundamentals Behind the Rally

Gold’s rally is not accidental. A series of international tensions keep global portfolios on constant alert. The situation in Venezuela, where the US government signals possible administrative intervention, threats of military action against Iran in response to internal repression (which has already resulted in over 500 deaths), the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Sino-Japanese trade dispute over rare earths – all of these act as catalysts for a flight to safe assets.

Additionally, concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve exert pressure on the US currency. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that monetary policy decisions should be based on what best serves the public interest, not political preferences. While this stance is firm, it fuels uncertainties that negatively impact the USD and, consequently, benefit non-yielding commodities like gold.

The Fed Factor: A Double-Edged Sword

Market data released on Friday presented a mixed scenario that cooled expectations of aggressive easing in 2026. The unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, while the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) added only 50,000 jobs against expectations of 60,000. These figures reduced bets on aggressive rate cuts, which theoretically should strengthen the dollar and push gold lower.

However, uncertainty about the autonomy of the central bank remains a counterforce, preventing the USD from regaining its vigor and allowing the precious metal to maintain its upward trajectory. Traders are cautious about adding new long positions in XAU/USD before the release of US inflation data scheduled for this week, a moment that could redefine market expectations.

Technical Architecture Maintains Bullish Sentiment

From a chart perspective, gold has been operating within a well-defined ascending channel over the past month, signaling a short-term uptrend. The metal remains above the 200-period simple moving average, an indicator that provides dynamic support in the US$ 4,325-4,320 region and reinforces the positive bias.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line in positive territory. The expanding histogram associated with the MACD demonstrates strengthening upward momentum, suggesting buyers still control the pace of the move. This element boosts confidence in new highs.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling 71.82 indicates an overbought situation that cannot be ignored. This level often precedes corrections or lateral consolidations, which could moderate gains in the near term and create room for a decompression phase near the top of the channel.

Forward Scenarios

A possible pullback would find support at the bottom of the ascending channel around US$ 4,365, where the 200-period moving average would serve as an anchor for the broader uptrend. A clear breakout of this support zone would challenge the recent dynamics.

On the other hand, if gold sustains gains above these supports, the path remains open for new highs, especially after a consolidation in the overbought zone. A convincing close above the upper resistance of the channel could open the doors to even higher territories.

The week promises to be decisive. With US inflation data on the radar and comments from FOMC members potentially generating volatility, the XAU/USD pair remains at the mercy of two movements: technical anchoring at established support levels and the sensitivity of Fed monetary policies to global geopolitical pressures.