Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and many people are beginning to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical risks on risk assets. Some investors are even waiting—waiting for the conflict to further escalate, waiting for asset prices to plunge to a "discount" they can accept.



The question is: this is not the first time tensions between the Middle East and Iran have arisen. Every time, people say this time is different, every time they hope for a lower price. But the reality is, have you really waited for that "bottom"?

Geopolitical conflicts can indeed impact the market, that's true. But whether assets will fall to your psychological price level is another matter. A question worth reflecting on is: how reliable are these expectations? When everyone is waiting for the same "discount," the market often has already priced in this expectation. Instead of chasing the illusion of a bottom, it's better to think clearly about your investment logic.
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RooftopVIPvip
· 4h ago
Waiting for the bottom? I just want to laugh when I see this kind of discussion. Every time they say "this time is different," but in the end, it's the same old trick. Honestly, instead of dreaming about that perfect discount, it's better to first think clearly about what you're buying.
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LootboxPhobiavip
· 4h ago
Wait a minute, isn't this just a gambler's mentality? Every time they say this time is different, but what happens? The bottom hasn't even arrived, and they've been cut off first.
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DaoResearchervip
· 5h ago
Based on on-chain data and historical event sequence analysis, this "bottom-fishing" psychological expectation is actually a typical coordination failure problem, involving information asymmetry and multiple equilibrium dilemmas in game theory. It is worth noting that when market participants have homogeneous expectations, the price discovery mechanism will preemptively exhaust this expectation—this is why you can never wait for that "discount." It is recommended that everyone first understand the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and you'll realize why technical support levels are often illusions. Geopolitical risks do exist, but the deviation between your psychological price and the actual market price is the real risk. Rather than betting on an escalation of geopolitical tensions, it’s better to examine whether your investment assumptions can withstand a stress test—this may sound like self-PUA, but it is indeed effective.
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