[Bitcoin Price Analysis] The battle to reach $90,000 by 2026, with spot demand supporting amid ETF outflow pressure

●Bitcoin has recently been trading around $95,440, and despite selling pressure from institutional investors at year-end, it continues to maintain a solid floor in the $90,000 range.●The net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs throughout December has reached approximately $1.89 billion, with about $1.13 billion of that concentrated during the intense period from December 18 to 30.●Overall market data shows a capital shift from cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, with BTC dominance rising nearly 2 points from November 26 to 59.66%. As derivatives trading stabilizes, physical buying demand is clearly supporting the price.

Massive ETF Outflows Contrasted by Bitcoin’s Resilience

At year-end, the market faces headwinds from ongoing capital outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. The total net outflow for December amounts to about $1.886 billion, aligning with portfolio adjustments by institutional investors at the fiscal year-end. According to analysts, this pattern of outflows tends to become more pronounced immediately after Boxing Day and peaks in the final week of the year.

Focusing on the eight days from December 18 to the end of the month, outflows from ETFs reached an extremely large scale of about $1.13 billion. Data analysis indicates December 26 as the single largest outflow day, suggesting that tax-related adjustments typical at year-end accumulated over the week.

Despite this negative capital flow environment, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the lower support around $86,000 but did not break below it. Instead, during rebounds, it rose to around $89,340. This movement indicates the presence of buying forces separate from institutional selling. Notably, from late December, support around $86,500 has been repeatedly confirmed, demonstrating the robustness of the bottom.

Capital Concentration in Bitcoin, Serving as a Buffer Against Altcoin Sell-offs

The resilience of Bitcoin is rooted in market participants’ asset reallocation. During the low-liquidity period at year-end, investors tend to shift toward relatively safer assets, with Bitcoin being the primary choice. Multiple metrics confirm that selective selling pressure from altcoin markets is directly translating into increased demand for Bitcoin.

Looking at Bitcoin dominance, it has risen from 58.50% on November 26 to 59.66% at the time of writing. This increase indicates a growing share of Bitcoin in the overall market capitalization, suggesting continued capital inflows into Bitcoin relative to riskier altcoins.

During the highly volatile year-end period, this defensive capital shift tends to intensify. Investor psychology during temporary liquidity dips often favors concentrated positions in major assets. This structural dynamic explains why Bitcoin was able to stay above the $85,000 level despite ETF selling pressures.

The Silence in Derivatives Markets Indicates a Market Driven by Spot Buying

As of December 30, derivatives market data clearly shows that the recent price rise is driven by spot purchases rather than speculative leverage trading. Futures and perpetual contract trading volume decreased sharply by 30.59% from the previous day, down to $66.34 billion. Meanwhile, open interest (position size) only declined by 1.85%, indicating no buildup of excessive new leverage.

Options market activity also declined by 35.46%, suggesting that speculative traders’ complex position-building activities are calming down. The long-short ratio remains near neutral at 0.99, reflecting a balance after a period of bearish dominance.

This derivatives environment suggests that the recent price increase has a high likelihood of sustainability. Leverage-driven rallies tend to be fragile due to changes in funding conditions and can reverse quickly. Conversely, spot-driven rallies tend to be more persistent, especially in an environment where Bitcoin dominance is trending upward, reinforcing market stability.

Path to Breaking $90,000: A Pivotal Moment Before 2026

If Bitcoin can sustain levels in the mid-$88,000s, the prospect of a clear breakout above $90,000 becomes more realistic. Such a move could serve as a catalyst for market participants to accelerate position adjustments ahead of 2026. Retail investors who have been waiting on the sidelines may be prompted to start moving once psychological barriers are broken.

However, risks remain. Capital outflows from ETFs continue to be a significant variable. If another large-scale outflow event occurs, upward attempts could be hindered. Unpredictable market liquidity changes during the year-end and New Year period could also act as surprises.

In conclusion, despite structural selling pressures from institutional investors, the overall market structure—supported by physical demand and serving as a buffer from altcoin sell-offs—continues to uphold Bitcoin’s price above the solid $80,000 level.