#我的2026第一条帖 From 98,000 to 95,000, Bitcoin surged and then retraced. How far can the rebound go?

Last night, the weekly initial jobless claims data came in below market expectations, indicating that the employment market remains resilient and showing signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials signaled a possible pause in rate cuts during their speeches, with a generally hawkish tone, causing market expectations for short-term easing to cool significantly. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market faced short-term pressure and weakened, with Bitcoin continuing its intraday decline, reaching a low of around 95,100 in the early morning; Ethereum also weakened, dropping to around 3,280 in the early morning, essentially erasing the rebound space before the US market opened.

From a macro perspective, the current market still assigns a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. The initial jobless claims data eased concerns about worsening employment and gave the Fed the confidence to maintain its stance. Coupled with officials collectively adopting a hawkish stance, short-term liquidity expectations have been suppressed again, risk asset sentiment has cooled, and the crypto market has naturally borne the brunt, entering a phase of retracement and recovery.

On the technical side, Bitcoin's daily chart, after multiple days of consecutive gains, has for the first time closed with a red candle, signaling a potential short-term top; the four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and is beginning to expand below the zero line, RSI has turned downward from the overbought zone, and momentum weakening is quite clear, indicating that the current move is more of a correction after a rebound rather than a continuation of a strong trend. However, it is important to note that the current price has already fallen back to near the four-hour midline, which may provide some short-term support. The weak volume increase on the hourly chart also shows signs of slowing, suggesting that a rebound confirmation might occur first, followed by further downward pressure.

In terms of trading strategy, the focus for the day is on the strength of the rebound. Short-term resistance levels are around the hourly midline at 96,300 and the previous night's rebound high at 97,000; these two levels are typical resistance zones during a rebound. Support levels are near the four-hour midline at 94,800; if this level is broken, the correction space could further open, and the price may retest the previous range upper boundary of 94,000–93,000. This zone is very critical; if it cannot be held effectively, it would mean that this rebound has essentially ended, and the market could revert to the previous consolidation range, continuing a weak correction pattern.

Regarding Ethereum, it appears relatively more stable compared to Bitcoin, but the overall momentum remains weak. Recent high-level rebounds have weakened significantly, with daily candles closing lower, and the four-hour MACD showing synchronized weakening, indicating a recovery phase after a rebound fatigue. Focus on the support strength around the four-hour midline at 3,270; if this level is broken, the correction could intensify, with support testing around 3,200–3,150. Short-term resistance remains at the rebound highs of 3,370–3,400 over the past two days, an area with heavy selling pressure; until a clear breakout occurs, it should be treated as resistance during the rebound.

Overall, whether Bitcoin or Ethereum, both are currently in a macro suppression and technical correction resonance phase, with the overall rhythm leaning toward pressure and recovery rather than trend continuation. It is not advisable to chase long positions; instead, it is better to wait for a second confirmation after a rebound faces resistance or to make decisions based on key support levels' holding or breaking. Tonight, several Federal Reserve officials will speak again, and their statements will continue to influence market expectations for the pace of rate cuts. Short-term sentiment may fluctuate more, so it is important to monitor closely and manage positions carefully!