Last night's initial jobless claims data underperformed expectations, which ironically indicates that the labor market still has resilience and shows clear signs of stabilization. But the trouble comes next—several Federal Reserve officials took turns speaking, all signaling a pause in rate cuts, collectively hawkish. The market's previous expectations for easing sharply declined, and liquidity expectations were repressed. The cryptocurrency market was hit hardest, with short-term pressure mounting. Bitcoin briefly fell back to around 95100, Ethereum also weakened, touching a low of 3280, essentially giving back the rebound space before the US market opened.

From the overall market perspective, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January is now as high as 95%. The initial jobless claims data alleviated concerns about worsening employment, giving the Fed more reason to hold off. Coupled with officials collectively hawkish, short-term liquidity expectations have been thoroughly suppressed, risk asset sentiment has cooled significantly, and the crypto market has naturally entered a phase of correction and recovery.

On the technical side, after several days of continuous upward movement, Bitcoin's daily chart has formed its first bearish candle, signaling a potential top. The four-hour MACD has already formed a death cross and is starting to increase volume below the zero line. The RSI has clearly turned downward from the overbought zone, showing signs of waning momentum. This indicates that the current move is mainly a correction after a rebound, not a continuation of a strong trend.

However, there's a detail worth noting—the price has already fallen back to the four-hour midline, which should provide some support. The weak volume on the hourly chart is also beginning to slow, implying that a rebound confirmation might occur first, followed by further suppression. Short-term trading rhythm needs to wait for further signals to confirm.