My First Post of 2026: From 98,000 to 95,000, Bitcoin Surged and Retraced—How Far Can the Rebound Go?

Last night, weekly initial jobless claims data came in below market expectations, indicating a resilient and stabilizing labor market. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials adopted a hawkish tone in their speeches, signaling a potential pause in rate cuts. This caused short-term easing expectations to cool significantly. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market faced immediate pressure; Bitcoin continued its intraday decline to a low of approximately 95,100 early this morning, while Ethereum weakened to around 3,280, erasing most of the gains seen before the US market open.
Macro Perspective: The "Hawkish Pause"
The market currently assigns a high probability (around 95%) that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. Robust employment data has given the Fed confidence to maintain its current stance. This collective hawkishness from officials has suppressed short-term liquidity expectations, cooling sentiment for risk assets. Consequently, the crypto market is entering a phase of retracement and consolidation.
Technical Analysis: Signs of a Local Top?
Bitcoin (BTC): On the daily chart, Bitcoin closed with its first red candle after several days of gains, signaling a potential short-term top. The four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and is expanding below the zero line, while the RSI has retreated from overbought territory. This indicates that the current move is a correction rather than a trend continuation. However, price support near the four-hour midline (around 94,800) remains a key area to watch.
Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum appears relatively stable compared to Bitcoin but lacks momentum. Rebounds have been met with selling pressure, and the four-hour MACD shows synchronized weakening.
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