What is the silver market brewing?

Over the past month, retail investors have poured a staggering $920 million into silver ETFs, with single-day inflows reaching their highest since 2021. The iShares Silver ETF has surged 31.3% year-to-date, with prices soaring 210.9%, and related mining stocks have increased by as much as 225%—this momentum has already overshadowed the meme stock craze of that year.

Is it purely speculative on the surface? Not necessarily. Research firm Vanda has a different view: "This is a structural capital inflow, and silver is gradually becoming a core macro asset class." In other words, it's not just retail investors gambling; institutions are quietly positioning themselves as well.

The issue is—Invesco recently sent a warning signal. They believe this is indeed a "once-in-45-years breakout," but "rushing to $80 within three months is too far-fetched." This statement is worth pondering. When prices rise so rapidly, the pullback is often equally fierce.

What is the market really saying? In simple terms: retail investors' power is enough to shake commodity pricing. When this power concentrates in one direction, emotional leverage has already been pushed to the limit. The limit usually means the turning point will be very intense—regardless of the direction.

So, is this an opportunity or a trap? It could be both, depending on your position in this wave. Calm observers often see more clearly than trend followers.