Is it currently a bull market or a bear market?

Let's look at 👇 through the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) and Russell 2000 Index futures.

See the image:
The top part shows the Global Liquidity Index (GLI)
The bottom part shows Russell Russell 2000 Index futures

Russell can be considered an proxy indicator of Bitcoin and Ethereum's sensitivity to liquidity — in past cycles, these three have responded very similarly to global liquidity.

Patterns shown in the chart:

1. GLI leads and breaks to new highs first;

2. Russell usually lags about 231 days before breaking out;

3. After Russell breaks out, it takes about 357 days to reach the cycle high.

Currently, Russell has only been above its previous high for about 90 days.

The historical average duration after GLI breaks out is about 550 days, but this cycle has only been about 270 days so far.

The current global liquidity environment also supports this continuation:

1. The Federal Reserve's net liquidity has bottomed out, showing signs of quantitative easing (including purchases of mortgage-backed securities);

2. China's economic stimulus measures are ongoing (amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars);

3. Japan has launched large-scale fiscal stimulus (recent supplementary budgets and total budgets are at record highs, supporting consumption and investment).

Additionally, in the second half of this year, U.S. policy variables (such as changes in the Federal Reserve leadership) may further influence liquidity.

Essentially, Russell, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are all transmission assets for liquidity. As liquidity conditions continue to improve and risk appetite rises, they tend to move upward together, and this trend usually persists for some time rather than being a short-term pulse, as historical cycles show.

From the chart and data, we are currently closer to a phase of continued risk asset expansion rather than signals of a market or macro top.

It is recommended to compare carefully with the timeline and annotations on the chart.