#比特币2026年行情展望 It is possible for Bitcoin to surge to $120,000 in 2026, but it also depends on luck — it's not a certainty. Institutions like Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and Citigroup have all provided forecasts, with year-end targets mainly in the $120,000 to $150,000 range, and more daring predictions even reaching $180,000 to $250,000.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of breaking through $130,000 before the end of 2026 is about 41%, while the chance of reaching $150,000 drops to 25%. Interestingly, the probability of falling back to $100,000 is as high as 79%, which also reflects market concerns about subsequent volatility.

Currently, in mid-January, $BTC is hovering around $96,000, with roughly 25% upside potential to reach $120,000. From a technical perspective, it’s crucial to hold the $100,000 to $105,000 level; if this support fails, downside risks could materialize, potentially dropping straight to $70,000–$80,000.

The main drivers for upward movement include continuous ETF capital inflows, the ongoing halving cycle effect, institutional accumulation, and sustained liquidity. However, risks should not be underestimated: sudden regulatory tightening, macroeconomic fluctuations, leverage liquidations, or institutional buying enthusiasm falling short of expectations could all change this story.